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Rigorous Fearless Independent

“There is the question about how much publishers are using these tools themselves,” said Niamh Burns, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “I think the amount of deployment is low, there is a lot of experimenting out there, but I could see a world where publishers will use some of these tools a lot. However, publishers must be realistic about the scale of efficiencies and revenue generation opportunities.”

Burns said that so far the willingness of publishers to use AI tools that directly impact or create editorial content related to how commercially pressured the media environment was for that operator.

“I do think that those media companies that are most commercially at risk in the near term are also at risk of overdoing it,” said Burns.

“A lot of that is to do with commercial models. If you rely on advertising from lots of traffic on social platforms and all you need is scale, not necessarily quality, then AI could be seen to really help.

We analysed hundreds of ads on YouTube, the biggest online video platform. Direct response campaigns predominate, especially among finance, ecommerce and technology buyers.

YouTube on TV hosts more brand campaigns with unskippable >30-second ads. In the UK, YouTube viewing on the TV set will grow c.80% by 2030, changing the profile of YouTube advertising.

YouTube generates about 85% of its revenue from ads. We found it also guides user behaviour by ramping up ad load for logged-out users so that they log in.

As Netflix transitions towards a reporting cadence that omits quarterly subscriber numbers, the focus is on revenue (+15% YoY, to $9.8 billion) and margin (+8ppts YoY, to 30%), which remain buoyant. The company has guided that 2025 revenues will be $43 to $44 billion (+$4 billion YoY), mostly due to subscriber growth

Netflix's advertising-supported tier is dragging its ARPU—however, given its important future growth role, we would expect it to start influencing the direction of the streamer's content slate

Despite its expansion into new genres, Netflix's UK viewing has further narrowed around drama and films: however, live sport, British formats and soaps could move the needle in the future

“Their track record of creating programming that cuts through has been underwhelming. They have spent a lot of money and made a lot of shows that haven’t really entered the public consciousness,” says Tom Harrington, head of TV at the Enders Analysis consultancy. “And they have a big subscriber base, a lot of people who have access to it, but you can count on one hand the shows which have really cut through.”

“No one knows what Max is, no one really understands the HBO brand,” says Harrington. “They kind of like the shows when they’re on Sky, but they’re not enormous shows outside Game of Thrones or House of the Dragon.”

Tom Harrington, head of television at Enders Analysis, says there would be “obvious advantages” for consumers.

“If you add all the tech spend of the PSBs together, it’s still insignificant compared with Netflix or Amazon, who set the perception of what a streaming service should be,” he says.

“Divided up and doing their own thing it’s going to be even worse, so combined they could pull together something half-decent that would work.”

Advertising revenue is expected to stabilise in 2024, which an Enders Analysis report said will provide a more stable planning base.

“Recent volatility has tested the broadcaster’s flexibility and proactiveness, above its competitors who are more insulated,” wrote analysts at Enders.

Enders pointed out other issues for Channel 4, including a “quantifiable drop” in the relative success of programming compared to pre-Covid-19 and a continued loss of broadcast viewing share among 16-34-year-olds.

UK news publishers are experimenting with generative AI to realise newsroom efficiencies. Different businesses see a different balance of risk and reward: some eager locals are already using it for newsgathering and content creation, while quality nationals hold back from reader-facing uses.

Publishers must protect the integrity of their content. Beyond hallucinations, overuse of generative AI carries the longer-term commercial and reputational risk of losing what makes a news product distinctive.

Far less certain is the role of generative AI in delivering the holy grail of higher revenues. New product offerings could be more of an opportunity for businesses that rely on subscribers than those that are ad-supported.

“The worry for Character.ai is the things it is doing can easily be replicated by big tech firms with financial firepower and huge global reach,” said Jamie MacEwan, an analyst at Enders Analysis. “Those star founders were its biggest selling point in the industry, I’m not sure if without them it can pretend to hold on to a technological edge.”