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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

A change of control clause triggered by Discovery’s takeover of Scripps will grant BBC Worldwide the option to acquire the 50% of UKTV that it does not already own

With a possible price in the vicinity of the £339 million paid by Scripps in 2011 it is by no means certain the BBCW could proceed alone—so a new, minority partner may well be necessary

Discovery, on the other hand, may be keen to acquire full ownership of UKTV, while retaining a licensing arrangement for the BBC’s content. A channel portfolio containing the best of Discovery, Scripps and UKTV content built on UKTV’s strong EPG positions would transform Discovery in the UK

Women at Work 2018

7 March 2018

To celebrate International Women's Day on 8 March 2018 in the centenary of the partial suffrage, Women at Work 2018 promotes the goals of professional women in the UK through:

Greater awareness by large employers thanks to new gender pay reporting requirements. The national mean gender pay gap of 14% confirms a gender imbalance inside most large employers. Only 30% of management positions are held by women, about the same as a decade ago (although the total number of such roles are shrinking). Leadership from the top has is crucial to address stereotypes behind the 'motherhood penalty', 'glass ceiling' and 'glass walls'

Increasing the share of women in top jobs. The voluntary initiative to make business more effective by more FTSE 100 companies appointing women to their boards is aiming for 1 of 3 roles by 2020, up from 28% in 2017. Women, however, hold only 10% of FTSE 100 Executive Director roles, casting a spotlight on the scarcity of female leaders in waiting in the 'executive pipeline'

Boosting female engagement with entrepreneurship, a booming UK trend, and leveraging the power of digital. With just 1 in 5 small businesses being female-led, women often cite networks, role models, and mentors as important enablers

Nicola Mendelsohn, VP of EMEA, Facebook, comments: "We live in a society where the system is often tilted in the opposite direction to women – the digital world has created a level playing field that removes the barriers and eliminates the bias. Every week I meet with women who are starting their businesses through digital channels or inspiring others to do the same as them. This is an important report that charts the success to date and the important progress that is still needed."

The creative industries too will gain from engaging with initiatives to remove barriers to equality of opportunity and realise the talent of women at work. Internal transformation is particularly relevant in 2018 when society-wide soul-searching promises to transform cultural products by further shattering tired tropes.

the Times

6 March 2018

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on Trinity Mirror, which plans to change its name to Reach after its acquisition of the Express and Star newspapers, also revealed that Simon Fox, its chief executive, received a 19 per cent increase in his total remuneration package last year to £893,000. This was despite a 19 per cent drop in the company’s share price in the past 12 months. Like many print media companies, Trinity Mirror is struggling to find a workable business model at a time when print circulation is declining and advertising revenues are gravitating online. However, Mr Fox said that the company had delivered structural cost savings of £20 million in the year, £5 million ahead of the initial £15 million target set for the year. For 2018, it has targeted a further £15 million. Douglas said that the company’s profits had been resilient. He said “Consolidation is the best game in town in these circumstances. With revenue going to Google and Facebook, the greater scale you can bring to the marketplace, the better”, adding that Mr Fox had “a great track of pushing savings through”.

Financial Times

5 March 2018

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on Sky, the group founded by Rupert Murdoch, that is now at the centre of a flurry of deals by companies trying to keep up with Netflix and Amazon. Sky has grown from a risky bet that nearly went bust in its first year of operation into a pan-European media powerhouse at the centre of a bidding war and of an industry facing an identity crisis. Claire said “Sky is an extraordinary success story”, pointing to its record of increasing revenue at 5 per cent a quarter. She added that the company has withstood competitors: the likes of ITV Digital, BT and, more recently, Netflix have all threatened to damage Sky, but have not yet dented its growth. She said “in the years since Netflix launched its streaming in 2012 Sky’s record in terms of revenue growth is unbroken”.

In this report we develop a rough segmentation of the adult population by level of online use: offline (10% of adults), shallow online (10%), deep online (80%). We examine how online services seeking to reach new audiences increasingly face the obstacle of missing demand rather than a lack of consumer skills or access

The app economy still relies on a limited consumer pool, but ecommerce is now reaching almost all of the deep online. Bridging the current gap between occasional and frequent online buyers is a clear opportunity and we are still in the early days of evolving buying services into shopping services

The only industry monetising all online users is advertising. Ad platforms, led by Google and Facebook, also play a critical role expanding the ranks of the deep online and online immersed. But offline brand display media, led by broadcast TV, remain critical for online brands wanting to expand their audience

 

 

UK residential communications market revenue growth fell again to 1.2%, with weakening ARPU growth the main driver. New customer pricing remains flat to down, and existing customers are being increasingly discounted, fuelling the ARPU weakness

High speed broadband adoption is proceeding apace, but the high speed premium is fairly thin, muting the impact on ARPU. Regulated wholesale price cuts from Openreach finalised today and due in April 2018 will not help

Looking forward, the March quarter will benefit from price timing effects at BT and Virgin Media, but we fear that the rest of 2018 will follow the current downward trend and the operators will need to adjust to an ex-growth environment

 

Virgin Media’s Q4 performance was a little softer than expected, with subscriber figures quite weak and no improvement in ARPU growth despite a better implementation of its annual price rise


The cause is however likely market-driven, with broadband demand slowing and all operators struggling for ARPU growth, and Virgin Media does now lead the market for subscriber, RGU and revenue growth


The prospects for 2018 are solid if not spectacular, with Project Lightning driving market share gains and ARPU defended by a network speed advantage that will last for many years yet

TalkTalk’s subscriber growth picked up a little in the quarter, but ARPU growth turned back negative, leaving consumer revenue still declining despite the heroic efforts it has made to turn around its subscriber growth in a slowing market

It is expecting even stronger subscriber growth next quarter, but it may need this to maintain ‘headline’ revenue growth given falling ARPU, and the high marketing costs required to achieve this have driven a reduction in EBITDA guidance


The company’s FTTP plans are less dramatic than they first look, with only a £100 million investment commitment over five years. The economics of the build look very challenging, but TalkTalk is minimally exposed to these

The Times

15 February 2018

James Barford was quoted in an article on the Premier League’s British broadcasting revenue which is set to fall after a huge jump for the previous rights deal. With five of seven packages sold for £4.46 billion, down from a total bill of £5.14 billion in 2015, the rivalry between the bidders Sky and BT has calmed. This year’s auction took place as the companies faced other crucial issues, with Sky preparing for a takeover and BT recovering from an accounting scandal while grappling with a £14 billion pensions deficit. For BT, the stakes were equally high. The company is so far paying about 8 per cent less for all its matches this time round, but could yet spend more by winning the remaining packages. The outcome of the auction for BT received a mixed response among analysts. James said “It’s a small saving [overall] but they’ve only got one package. They might end up paying a bit more”.