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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media & Telecoms 2017 & Beyond conference in conjunction with Deloitte, Moelis & Company, Linklaters and LionTree, in London on 2 March 2017.

This report contains the slides used by Tom Mockridge, Matthew Kirk, Andrew Griffith, and Geoff Moelis.

Financial Times

12 April 2017

Francois Godard was quoted in an article on the Vivendi CEO tops list for a new Telecom Italia board. Vivendi has named its chief executive at the top of a list of proposed directors at Telecom Italia, in a move that appears aimed at replacing TI’s current chairman, Giuseppe Recchi. Francois said “it opens the door to have de Puyfontaine as Telecom Italia’s chairman without explicitly saying so”.

Financial Times

12 April 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on The Telegraph, who seems to have find a way to profits in an age of digital disruption. The news industry is being upended by plunging revenues from print advertising and the migration of digital advertising. Nevertheless, in 2015, the Telegraph Media Group made a £48m pre-tax profit on a turnover of £320m, a slight improvement on the £46m it made in 2014. Douglas said the change to a paywall was significant. “The switch positions the Telegraph differently — both internally with its journalists and externally with its readers and its advertisers. The value of the content and the act of developing it — and of being associated with it — are all being clearly underlined.”

As Spotify wavers around the breakeven point, the deal with UMG is good news for royalty costs and thus for the likely advent of the IPO rumoured for autumn 2017

Royalty costs will reduce if Spotify reaches the subscriber growth targets that have been agreed – these have not been disclosed, so are hard to track

Question marks persist over whether a two-week optional windowing of new releases on the premium tier will significantly drive upgrades from the free tier

France’s first round of the presidential election on 23 April looks set to deliver a run-off on 6 May between nationalist Marine Le Pen and pro-EU, pro-NATO reformer Emmanuel Macron, who holds a 20 point lead in that contest – a much higher margin than last year’s mistaken projections for Clinton and Remain


Should Mr. Macron become president and win a majority in the June parliamentary elections, a challenge for nascent party En Marche!, his reformist platform would tackle France’s main economic issue: low employment. The anticipated privatisation of Orange could launch a burst of media and telecom M&A 


A defeat of Marine Le Pen and a new reformist French government could relaunch the partnership with Germany, making the EU more confident in its future, and improving auspices for a sensible Brexit

The Times

10 April 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on The Guardian’s decision to contemplate returning to its Manchester roots as business rates for their London headquarters rise 50 per cent. The revaluation that came into effect this month has resulted in a 73 per cent increase in the value of the newspaper’s property assessment which is used to calculate the new rates, experts say. Furthermore, the paper is reeling from the loss of print advertising which is having a big impact across the sector. Despite efforts to bring in extra revenue through tiered membership and donations, Ms Viner is also aggressively cost-cutting via redundancies, reduced printing costs and cheaper real estate. Douglas said “David Pemsel [now chief executive] and Kath Viner are addressing the challenges of their model with a forcefulness and roundedness that has not always been possible”, but, he said the paper would have to go through “a good deal more change” to make it truly sustainable.

Financial Times

10 April 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on the decision of the European Commission to unconditionally approve the £11.7bn takeover of Sky by 21st Century Fox - saying it would raise no competition concerns in Europe. Claire said that the European clearance proved as straightforward as had been expected, adding that, “the issues are much more in the UK. This is another little hurdle cleared, but not much compared to the challenges ahead”.

Financial Times

6 April 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on a federal probe into Fox News - controlled by the Murdoch’s family - which could undermine their latest offer for Sky. The federal investigation into potential misconduct in the US is gathering steam just as British regulators are deciding whether 21st Century Fox would be a “fit and proper” owner of Sky — six years after the Murdoch’s abandoned their first attempt to buy the European broadcaster amid the phone-hacking scandal. It is not clear whether the US investigation of Fox News would fall into the scope of the fit and proper person test, although Ofcom’s guidelines are sufficiently wide to allow it to consider foreign investigations. Claire said the investigation “may weigh negatively” on Ofcom’s deliberations, adding that “it doesn’t look that great from the outside if federal prosecutors are pursuing things”.

The UK intends to exit the EU on 29 March 2019 and will submit the hoped-for agreement on a new strategic partnership with the EU to a vote in Parliament

The EU and the UK agree to seek an early settlement on the rights of 4 million nationals and the Irish border. Incentives diverge on the size of the UK’s Brexit bill

Unless a withdrawal agreement is reached, the EU will balk at starting talks on the UK’s desired free trade agreement (FTA), making a hard Brexit more likely than not