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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Financial Times

30 January 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on Bertelsmann, the German conglomerate, which owns 53 per cent, is looking to raise its stake in Penguin Random House. Especially after the UK professional publisher Pearson said it planned to sell its 47 per cent share in the company. However, it comes at a time when the digital revolution is utterly transforming traditional business models and rewriting the rule-book for industries, from music and media to travel and financial services. Moreover, when many believed publishing would also fall victim to digital disruption, Douglas said “the physical book market has turned out to be more resilient than anyone expected”.

Netflix celebrated the 10-year anniversary of its streaming service by posting its largest quarterly rate of subscriber growth, adding just over 7m new subscribers in Q4 2016, smashing its own forecast for the period of 5.2m

5.12m of the new subscribers were for its international services, attributed to acceptance of its growing suite of English language original programs. But growth is just as likely related to the bolstering of overseas offerings with acquired programming, after launching worldwide with relatively small libraries

While re-establishing confidence after a period of doubt when missing targets in Q2, challenges await; most notably concerns around net neutrality, diversifying content genres, and the open question as to how effectively original programming will be able to carry the service

Financial Times

26 January 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on the Murdoch family, and the gradual transfer of power from Rupert Murdoch to his sons, James and Lachlan. The brothers will manage the Sky bid with the aim of avoiding the fate of the last offer they made for the company. Back in 2010, the family couldn’t have handled things much worse, according to Claire Enders. Claire points to the aggressive posture taken at the time, particularly by James, who in his 2009 MacTaggart lecture lambasted the BBC, calling the scale of its activities “chilling” and describing the regulation of UK broadcasting as “authoritarianism” that limited choice and freedom of expression. Claire says this disdain carried over into the first Sky bid a year later, with “hectoring” phone calls by the Murdoch camp to government ministers. It was, she goes on, “an extraordinary farce”. The bid this time has been made in less charged circumstances. There has been no antagonism towards Ofcom or the government and no backdrop of a criminal investigation. Claire said “the previous bid was highly politicised but this bid is very deliberately not politicised at all”. The Murdochs, she adds, “are being patient and understanding and they are not hectoring”.

Streaming is now mainstream and we predict 113% growth in expenditure on subscriptions for 2015-18 in the top four markets (US, UK, Germany and France)

Free vs paid-for streaming is the central question for the music ecosystem: free yields fractions of pennies, making subscription the only credible business model

Market leader Spotify is facing competition from tech giants Amazon, Apple and Google, with deep pockets, for whom content is a pawn in a larger game

Financial Times

12 January 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on the UK newspaper crises, which is driving rivals collaboration in face of fast declining print advertising. Richard Desmond, who owns the Express newspaper group, and Simon Fox, Trinity Mirror chief executive, called on a potential merger. Douglas said “in these challenging times, newspaper owners are having to think the unthinkable. Consolidation is inevitable.”

In the UK, traditional broadcast television's future appears threatened, as technological developments increasingly allow people to access video content on demand, whether on TV sets or other screens, or from traditional broadcasters or online services.

This report examines the extent to which timeshift viewing, by which we mean personal video recorder (PVR) playback and viewing to catch-up services, has bolstered linear TV.

The linear schedule is still very relevant for both consumers and advertisers, maintaining television’s status as an effective mass medium for building brands.

Financial Times

6 January 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on the future of ITV, as speculation grows over changes at the top of UK broadcaster. Claire said “this is a watershed year for ITV. This is the year that people realise that peak TV is behind us and while ITV has many different levers of revenue advertising will be tough. Adam has done a great job but the fact is ITV is in play because of the fall in the company’s share price and the value of sterling.”

21st Century Fox and Sky plan to notify their proposed merger to the European Commission, perhaps by March, and obtain clearance on competition grounds, as rapidly as in 2010.

The merger could also face, along the lines of 2010, a separate regulatory process in the UK on media plurality grounds, by a decision of Secretary of State Karen Bradley.

If the UK process happens, Ofcom will provide its advice on the merger’s impact on news and current affairs, whose consumption has shifted massively online since 2010.

UK mobile service revenue growth improved in Q3 to -0.8% from -1.7% in the previous quarter, a welcome turnaround after three quarters of declining growth. Pricing remains firm, data volume growth remains robust, and some of the one-off factors affecting the previous quarter have dropped out

Sky Mobile soft-launched at the end of 2016, and it is taking an aggressive approach with a very deep MVNO technical model with substantial fixed costs, a high advertising budget and ambitious internal subscriber targets. To date the fixed MVNOs have not had a substantial impact on the MNOs, targeting a customer base that is non-core, but with SIM-only on the rise this may change

Looking at recently released network performance statistics, the impact of spectrum disparities is clear, with EE both able to offer faster speeds nationwide due to its large blocks of 4G spectrum, and offer much faster speeds in London. EE also has a lead in geographic coverage, and is planning to push its coverage much further, creating a challenge for the other operators to keep up