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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The Times

28 March 2017

Alice Enders was quoted in an article on Brexit and the consequences for British firms. In particular, Alice focused on TV and film producers, which could be among the big losers if Britain leaves the European Union without a free trade deal. The impact would reverberate far beyond the creative sphere. Overseas sales of movies and TV shows, along with other creative work, brought in £13.9bn in 2015, accounting for 9% of non-financial services exports that year. A large chunk of that income would be cast into doubt by a hard Brexit. Under the current system, European broadcasters are obliged to buy 50% of their programmes from EU-based producers. Alice said “the quota system has been very valuable to Britain’s TV production industry”. Adding that “exports are becoming more important due to pressures on the licence fee and the budgets of commercial free-to-air broadcasters.”

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Video viewing forecasts to 2026

23 March 2017

2016 was yet another year in which we saw big changes in the UK’s video consumption habits amongst the under45s, with little let up in the decline of traditional broadcast linear TV viewing for the younger age groups.

Online video-on-demand services will continue to grow, partly at the expense of traditional TV audiences. We also expect the overall volume of viewing to rise, mainly due to wider production of and access to short-form content.

Despite these changes, conventional broadcasters look to be strong for years to come—we estimate they will still account for 80% of all video viewing in 2026.

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Financial Times

23 March 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on François Fillon’s claim of being the victim of a “media lynching” and told reporters he had faced “a press campaign of unheard-of violence”. His criticism chimes with that of his chief opponent National Front leader Marine Le Pen, who also sees bias in the mainstream media’s coverage of her. Mr Fillon and Ms Le Pen’s combative tone reflects heightened tensions between France’s politicians and the country’s media, which have traditionally enjoyed a cosy, conciliatory and even incestuous relationship. Claire said “French politicians feel that the country’s press has become more demanding, journalists were more deferential before and they could be restrained. There was an established pact between the government and the media, which has broken down.”

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YouTube, programmatic and brand safety

23 March 2017

Media reports of ads by top brands appearing next to extremist content on YouTube have surprised advertisers and led to a barrage of criticism from other media companies, agencies and the UK government


Despite several advertisers pausing spend, the revenue impact for Google is likely to be small in the short term – but the debate is a symptom of ongoing tension between “frenemies”: large agencies and Google & Facebook 


By urging Google alone to educate display advertisers and filter campaigns, agencies risk ceding more of their client relationship to the advertising giant, while calls for the platform to make all editorial judgements on political content are inappropriate

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The Financial Times

20 March 2017

François Godard was quoted in an article on the rising tensions between Mediaset and Vivendi over the Vivendi’s deal to acquire 3.5 percent of the Italian group. Despite reports in Italy of a possible peace deal between the two parties, Vincent Bolloré, Vivendi’s chief executive, has accused the Italian group of providing “misleading” information during negotiations. Francois said that he would “not be surprised” if Mediaset had been “too optimistic about its assets”, when the Italian group struck its agreement with Vivendi last April. He added that “they could have said a lot of things. But on the other hand I do not think Bolloré is a person who believes everything he is told.”

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21CF and the bid for Sky: state of play

20 March 2017

Secretary of State Karen Bradley has intervened on two UK public interest grounds in 21CF’s bid for 100% ownership of Sky: media plurality, as in 2010, and a commitment to broadcasting standards, new in 2017

Ofcom will assess any implications of 21CF’s full control of Sky on whether it is ‘fit and proper’ to hold a broadcast licence, reporting back on 16 May

Undertakings are a live issue in the 2016 bid, notably to protect the editorial independence of Sky News, noting the bid faces determined opposition from certain quarters

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The Times

20 March 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on George Osborne’s first tasks as editor of the London Evening Standard. Mr Osborne must find new ways of raising revenue, with cost-cutting expected later in the year. Douglas said that the paper’s profits were positive “compared to where they were a few years ago”, but the decline in print advertising was likely to result in a loss for the paper. He added, “you could argue that [Osborne’s] a man who has some experience of taking on a distressed set of accounts”.

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UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q4 2016: Under pressure

16 March 2017

UK residential communications market revenue growth fell to 3.3% in Q4, from 5.4% in the previous quarter. The slowdown was mainly caused by BT’s overlapping price rise dropping out, but there was also ARPU weakness at Sky (due to price rise timings) and TalkTalk (due to re-contracting customers)


Volume growth in the core three products continued its decline, with broadband reaching saturation, line rental suffering from Virgin’s broadband solo offering and pay-lite TV offers losing momentum. Looking forward, recent and upcoming price increases should allow some recovery from current revenue growth levels


However, competitive pressures are increasing. Virgin Media’s network extension continues to accelerate, TalkTalk is attempting to stabilise its base and new customer pricing has fallen substantially since December 2016 – causing a dramatic disparity in new/existing customer pricing. The higher churn and/or reduced ARPU this is likely to cause, combined with slowing market volumes, indicate that market revenue growth is unlikely to recover to the 5-6% it enjoyed for most of 2015 and 2016

 

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BT tightens grip on Champions League TV

16 March 2017

The latest auction of UEFA Champions League televised UK rights has seen further high 32% inflation as BT renewed its ownership for the three seasons from 2018/19 for an annual payment of £394 million

Although BT annual payments are to increase by £95 million from 2018/19, the new contract offers added commercial attractions, though we expect BT’s efforts to monetise them will fall some way short of the cost increase

However, BT had to win to cement its position against Sky as a strong number two in UK premium pay TV and we expect weaker future inflation of premium football rights. For Sky followers, the focus is now on the UEFA auctions in Germany and Italy, where the outcome is far from certain

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