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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Amazon’s marketing services bring in a growing stream of direct, high-margin revenue, but their main role is still in supporting vendor partnerships

Amazon uses customer profile data to profit from its own media and that of others, illustrating the value of a direct customer relationship in online advertising

In the future, Amazon’s moves into video content and voice interfaces are likely to significantly expand ad inventory, but maintaining the trust of shoppers is not straightforward

Virgin Media successfully ramped up its network extension in Q4, passing more than double the homes in the previous quarter, and above the rate required to meet 2017 expectations

Net customer additions were, however, relatively weak, entirely due to extra churn caused by the price increase implemented in the quarter. The price increase’s effect on ARPU and revenue growth was muted by ARPU discounting for new customers, leaving revenue growth broadly unchanged

Subscriber growth has already improved in early 2017, and is likely to continue to improve through the year. The discounted ARPU impact will be more sustained, but robust revenue growth is still likely throughout the year

21st Century Fox’s (21CF) second attempt to acquire Sky comes at a time when the TV world faces mounting online pressure, accompanied by erosion of territorial boundaries in an increasingly global marketplace 

Despite some investor concerns about Sky’s ability to deliver its operating targets over the next five years, we consider the underlying business to be sound and starting to show benefits that derive from its international scale 

21CF’s bid has a strong strategic logic in terms of growing international scale further and evolving a global platform that integrates shared content strengths in sports and entertainment with Sky’s top of class expertise in customer relationships 

Financial Times

15 February 2017

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on the newspaper industry. As print's fortunes continue to decline, prominent publishers such as the New York Times are increasingly relying on their digital future. On both sides of the Atlantic publishers were reinvigorated by the globe-shaking news events of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. Claire Enders says that while the trends in the UK and US mirror each other, many newspaper groups would have fared better had they not wasted so much money on new digital ventures. She added “The remarkable story in the UK is that more titles have not followed the Independent’s lead and gone digital only. There is still enough scale to keep newspapers going.”

Despite a slowing of circulation decline in 2016, UK national newspaper brands continue to face profound structural challenges, with print advertising spend expected to be down at least -15% for the year

In digital advertising, tech and distribution platforms continue to dominate growth with newspaper publishers and other content producers competing for an increasingly small slice of the revenue pie

In this context, many publishers are turning to paid membership and content subscription models to generate online revenues; success here will require a radical shift in thinking to a retailer mindset that delivers high quality reader experiences through integrated execution of tech, data, marketing and design

Vodafone Europe’s mobile service revenue growth worsened to -0.6% from -0.2% in the previous quarter, the first deterioration following at least nine quarters of consecutive improvement, with the UK particularly weak


The company could nonetheless grow profits handsomely if revenue growth stabilises at this level, with more clarity on the medium term prospects for this likely to come with next quarter’s results and guidance for 2017/18


Our main concern continues to be the company’s declining subscriber share, particularly in consolidating markets where its historic advantages of having high market share may be rapidly eroded

 

Financial Times

8 February 2017

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on the book industry, where there are signs of a book renaissance all around. Waterstones, the UK book chain, returned to profit last year after suffering six years of losses. Sales of print books in the US rose by 3 per cent, while those of eBooks have fallen. Digital technology has not unleashed the same revolution in publishing that it has for music, television and news. The book, in digital or printed from, has been more stable than other kinds of media. Douglas said “we read books one at a time and each one takes us days”.

The Bank of England predicts a mild decline of real household consumption growth to 2% in 2017, as higher inflation chews at disposable income

City forecasters are more circumspect on consumption growth, and we agree that households are likely to display more caution on expenditure relating to non-essentials

Retail sales, a bellwether for advertisers, look subdued in the New Year, and we maintain our forecast of flat advertising expenditure growth in 2017

TalkTalk had a weak quarter, as was pre-warned, with the decline in the broadband base accelerating and consumer revenue growth of -6% slightly worse than the previous quarter

Guidance was however very bullish, with the company confident that it can bounce back to return to positive net adds in the March quarter, while still hitting its profitability guidance

This looks a difficult task in a market which is still highly competitive, but if it can achieve it, the longer term aim of a stable customer base and growing revenue and profits looks much more plausible