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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

the Financial Times

23 February 2015

Toby Syfret was quoted in an article about fears from broadcasters of falling revenues as viewers switch to on-demand TV, with much of the focus being on the shift from 'linear' TV to on-demand services, such as Netflix and BBC iPlayer, seen among young people. However Toby said "the habits of the parents are changing too", with live TV viewing having fallen 11 per cent among adults aged 35 to 54 since 2010.  

Virgin Media’s Q4 results were strong across all measures, with household, RGU and all product net adds accelerating, revenue accelerating, and OCF growth

As demand for high speed broadband grows, Virgin Media is benefiting by offering the fastest top speeds and by being the cheapest provider for speeds over 30Mbps

The company has announced a £3bn investment to extend its network by 4m premises, which may win it an extra 6% share of the broadband market at the expense of BT, Sky and TalkTalk

Consumer expenditure on recorded music continued its decline in 2014 by about 6% to $18 billion, as purchasing of download-to-own (DTO) albums and singles passed its peak in 2013, adding to the ongoing decline in total sales of CDs that started a decade ago Streaming is now the only growth story left for the industry, and it has a global footprint, being embraced by developed and emerging markets alike, unlike purchasing The US phenomenon of rapidly rising revenues from ad-supported audio streaming services such as Pandora and music video streaming on YouTube is quite unique as other markets currently lack the potential for online advertising

New phase for news brands

13 February 2015

News has entered a new phase, defined by the disruptive forces of mobile, social media and video, effecting rapid changes in consumption and the underlying economics for news businesses: the level of change and innovation is rewiring the structure and financial models for news more quickly than many news providers are able to respond. While charging for news looks to be a successful route for some brands, we note that the scale of charging for the industry is substantially smaller than in print. Apart from this, three models are gathering traction: selling audience engagement; selling news services; and selling news to businesses. Each of these options involves very different strategies and opposing objectives which can only be pursued at the same time by those with the deepest pockets. Everyone else has to choose.

The latest auction of live televised Premier League rights has exceeded all expectations as the next three-year package commencing with the 2016/17 football season will cost £5,136 million, 70% up on the current £3,018 million

By shouldering much the greater cost increase of 83%, Sky has held on to five out of seven packages, including the most prized Super Sunday; however, the latest auction results underline the continuing core importance of PL football in spite of all the recent multi-product diversification and investment in non-sport content

Though still the smaller of the two parties with just two packages, there is much to satisfy BT in the results. Its cost increase was an easily-affordable 30%, which will make Ofcom's VULA test more manageable given upcoming European Champions League payments. At the same time, the pressure on Sky's profitability has increased

Sky plc, the coming together of BSkyB, Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia, has enjoyed an excellent start, as adjusted H1 2015 figures delivered a 5% increase in revenues versus a 3% increase in costs, resulting in EBITDA growth of 7% and with free cash flow up by 25%

The strong financial results were accompanied by strong subscriber growth figures, especially in the operations covering Austria, Germany, Ireland and the UK, while all markets showed large reductions in churn, reinforcing confidence in the strategic approach of Sky plc

It is too early to assess Sky’s delivery of its target group synergies. Individually, the former BSkyB and Sky Deutschland markets may be showing much stronger subscriber and product growth, but they also look to be more exposed to risk over football rights, while Sky Italia has more going for it than may appear at first sight

The Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas revealed the ‘next big thing’ for consumers to be products embodying the Internet of Things (IoT), controlled from the smartphone or the vehicle Wearables like fitness bracelets are already selling well in the UK, amongst the largest per capita markets for consumer electronics, and next up is the launch of Apple’s smartwatch Building out the smart home is the focus of the current wave of devices imbedded with sensors on show at CES 2015, with apps developed on platforms supplied by Samsung, Google and Apple

The iPhone 6 and 6 Plus drove Apple’s most extraordinary quarter ever, with the company’s position in the smartphone market improving on all fronts: explosive growth in China, rising market share in the US and a rising average sales price.

By contrast, iPad sales continued to decline in spite of the iPad Air 2’s release, suffering from cannibalisation by the phablet-sized 6 Plus and saturation in developed markets. Apple has a strategy to revive sales, which may bear fruit later in the year.

A slate of new products is coming this year, led in the spring by Apple Watch. The question is, will Watch be a significant new source of profit or just a way to protect the iPhone’s dominant position in the smartphone market.

TalkTalk’s revenue growth accelerated to over 4% in Q3, despite a tough comparative, with a price increase towards the end of the quarter and robust corporate revenue growth helping, giving it good momentum into 2015

Broadband net adds of 15k were unchanged on the previous quarter, disappointing given a broader market bounce, but the company expects acceleration next quarter

The company warned of lower than expected EBITDA margin in H2 2014/15, making its medium term 25% target look more challenging, but margins are still likely to improve going forward