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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

“Economic slowdown or recession and reduced consumer spend would naturally impact ad budgets,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior media analyst at research group Enders Analysis. “[It] is a real risk because of the sheer scale of the tariffs and their impact on the actual flow of goods.”

He told The Media Leader that business confidence also “shouldn’t be underrated as a factor, because marketing plans are based on business plans and the uncertainty around tariffs will put some of those into a holding pattern”.

“Europe and the UK may look like more attractive regions for these businesses in light of US policies, but that still won’t make up for the wider economic turmoil caused by tariffs,” MacEwan explained.

 

The USA is reshaping the global economic order in defiance of trade treaties; however, the rest of the world is observing trade treaties and absorbing the shock of the tariff wall erected around the US market.

The UK is relatively spared among the 90 origins hit by the USA's tariffs on imports of goods, which do not apply to services' exports to the US, twice the value of goods, including media (e.g. TV programmes) and advertising services.

The timing of the deteriorating global outlook is poor due to the headwinds facing the UK economy that are impairing the recovery of advertising in 2025.

“The bid won’t succeed, it’s not designed to succeed,” says François Godard, a market analyst with London-based Enders Analysis, who argues MFE would prefer to wait until Pro7 sheds some of its noncore assets — the company is trying to offload its ecommerce and online dating ventures — before buying the network outright. “But MFE will eventually take control of Pro7. At the European level, consolidation is inevitable.”

“Ad revenue can help subsidize lower subscription fees or bring a newsletter into profit,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “At the same time there’s never been more competition in the newsletter market, so there is pressure to remove restrictions any of these authors may be feeling, as we’ve seen with Beehiiv’s recent introduction of ads.”

“Newsletters may be a small part of the ads market, but they can provide an attractive option to up-market or B2B advertisers, as audiences tend to be more affluent and feel a strong connection to the author and the topic, which is presented in a premium context,” MacEwan said.

The move comes as altnets, whose networks now cover about 40 per cent of the country according to consultancy Enders, have stepped up their hunt for financing and deals. 

Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders, estimated that Connexin’s shareholder, asset manager Patrizia, would take a 1.5 per cent stake in CityFibre as part of the agreement. Patrizia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Most regulations within the TAR26 condoc were continuations of the previous pro-investment regulations, albeit with little progress made on copper withdrawal, no extra help for the struggling altnets and a number of unexpected twists at the margin. 

Within the detail, the most significant hit is the return of cost-based price controls to some leased line charges, and across all of the proposed changes, Openreach has on balance fared worse than retail ISPs, albeit at a scale that is manageable within the BT Group.

Ofcom showed no inclination to offer any extra help to the struggling altnet industry, regarding its inefficiencies as being its own (and its investors’) problem, with consolidation the only sensible path forward for most.

Enders Analysis published a report on the state of UK podcasting this week, which estimated the UK podcast ad market is worth about £70m. “We are not yet at a point where the size of the market in the UK is proportionate to the size of the market in the US,” Pastor said. “Their population may be five times ours. The size of their advertising budgets are many more than five times greater. We’re still playing catch-up.”

Enders said: “The industry remains small overall, with podcasts treated as a slice of advertisers’ audio budgets, currently limiting growth and resulting in overall revenue representing a tiny part of the audio advertising pie, at around £70m compared to the £738m spent on radio last year.” However, Enders added: “An industry move into video – on both YouTube and Spotify – offers substantial reach and monetisation opportunities.”