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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

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Rigorous Fearless Independent

the Financial Times

18 February 2014

Chris Goodall was quoted in an article about BT winning a court victory over BSkyB in a  move that could make it easier for the telecoms group to gain access to its rival's sports content. "If there's an obligation to wholesale, the market is less likely to descend into a bidding war that destroys both companies" he said, adding that "if BT knows it will be able to obtain Sky's sports channels, then it might be less tempted to overbid for Premier League rights."

Virgin Media’s consumer cable revenue growth dipped down to 3% in Q4, largely driven by weaker RGU growth during the year feeding through

Subscriber net adds were however much stronger in Q4, and the company has confidently implemented firm price increases this month, backed up by another speed increase across all tiers

OCF declined by 5%, or 1% excluding one-off items, with increased sports content costs from BT and Sky weighing. However, the company remains confident of mid-single digit OCF growth in 2014, with growth improving through the year

In 2013 Sky focused on recruiting ‘quality’ subscribers: net additions fell but ARPU growth accelerated and most new customers have signed up to two-year contracts, which will lead to a reduction in churn

Now Sky is moving its focus back to subscriber growth. It aims at 400-450,000 net adds this year, including the migration of wholesale DTAG customers – a target we find realistic. The €70-90 million EBITDA guidance may be conservative

Without any direct competitor, Sky is rightly enhancing its all-in-one premium appeal. This supports ARPU growth and increases its distinctiveness compared to other providers, including the expected Netflix launch in Germany

the Financial Times

12 February 2014

Alice Enders was quoted in an article about MPs voicing concerns on BBC World Service. The World Service, which reaches a global audience of 192m each week and is seen as a key part of the UK's soft power, has lost one-tenth of its annual funding since 2010. In the last financial year, it generated about £8m of commercial revenue, including £200,000 from advertising on its international websites. "Lots of public sector broadcasters have advertising; it's not the end of the world" she said. 

Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth was again weak, flat on the previous quarter in reported terms at -10%, but underlying revenue growth declined slightly, despite a strong recovery in GDP growth

There are some limited signs of recovery – improved contract net adds, sustained data volume growth, an end in sight to ARPU dilution – but realistically Vodafone’s admirable organic investment push will not reap rewards within the year

More near term interest is on M&A, with Vodafone shopping for fixed line operations, important in-market mobile consolidation regulatory decisions coming up, and interest in Vodafone itself possible after the Verizon deal closes later this month

the Financial Times

6 February 2014

Gill Hind was quoted in an article about Communicorp entering the UK radio market with the acquisition of eight local stations from Global Radio. Under the agreement, Communicorp will be responsible for producing local content and selling local advertising. But Global has retained control of national advertising sales for the stations. About Global licensing its Capital, Heart and Smooth brands to Communicorp, extending their reach across the UK, she said "it's a very good deal for Global. The crucial thing for them is that they retain control of national sales."

TalkTalk enjoyed a healthy December quarter, with broadband net adds steady, TV net adds accelerating, churn falling and revenue growth accelerating to 5%

Revenue growth was boosted by a big wholesale contract win and the timing of line rental price increases, but the company did achieve a complex price restructuring with no negative ARPU impact

With churn heading down again, the company appears to have successfully weathered the BT Sport-related storm, leaving it on track to achieve its aims

Operating profits took a dip in H1 2014 as Sky absorbed the £110 million hike in Premier League (PL) football rights, saw marketing spend rise as a result of strong product growth and invested £40 million in its connected TV services

Growth has stayed positive across the range of TV and home communications products, while the new User Interface due to launch in the next few months promises to unlock significant incremental revenues as well as underline the quality of Sky offerings in movies and entertainment

Sky has no time to lose in building on its strengths in content, service quality and customer loyalty as the next PL auction looms towards the end of calendar 2014/first half of 2015, but the strategy appears sound with strong revenue and upside potential

BT grew both its Group level and consumer retail revenue for the first time in years, and while the extent of growth was flattered by one-off factors, growth is still positive on an underlying basis, an impressive achievement indeed for a European fixed incumbent

This is mainly driven by robust pricing, declining line losses, and continuing fibre adoption, with the indirect impact of BT Sport still hard to discern, but the direct impact absorbing all of BT’s hard won cost reduction gains to leave EBITDA flat

The outlook is positive in that BT can achieve its current financial guidance even with the millstone of BT Sport costs, but the uncertain outcome of the next Premier League rights auction casts a shadow on prospects thereafter