Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Vodafone Europe’s revenue growth declined again, as it underperformed a weak market, with pricing pressures still suppressing growth despite recovering macroeconomic conditions

Project Spring is a limited step in the right direction, with European mobile network investment only £3bn out of the £7bn total, but the potential network outcome – 4G coverage better than 2G is now – is impressive

Improving regulatory and economic conditions will give a limited boost in the short term, and the network investment will take years not months to pay off, leaving a long wait before sustainable improvement is seen

Sub-scale Numericable?

13 November 2013

Following its return to revenue growth, France’s sole cable operator has merged with its B2B sister Completel and was floated on the Paris Bourse on 8 November

Numericable wants to cling to the momentum behind the European cable sector – but, due to its limited scale in a mature market, it has lower growth potential than its peers

Guidance given to investors for modest revenue and profit increases is credible, but Numericable faces the strategic challenge of Orange’s fibre upgrade which, in our view, calls for a partnership with a bigger altnet

The Vivendi empire is shrinking in revenues, cash flow and also in debt: Activision Blizzard and Maroc Télécom were sold in 2013, SFR will be spun off

We expect SFR’s topline revenue decline to halt in H1 2014, ending the pain from the disruptive launch of Free Mobile in 2012. With SFR and Bouygues Telecom intending to conclude a network-sharing agreement outside urban areas by the end of 2013, SFR should have a more positive story to tell investors when it comes to the Paris stock market in late 2014

With SFR spun off, Vivendi 3.0 will own just Canal+, Universal Music Group (UMG) and GVT (telecoms operator in Brazil), three companies without visible synergies. The end point appears to be the full dissolution of the Vivendi conglomerate

the Financial Times

12 November 2013

Toby Syfret was quoted in an article discussing the competition between BT and Sky to broadcast Champions League football.  While competition is supposed to benefit the consumer, in this case there is concern that the public could end up paying more to watch the same matches. He says "the consumer loses out."

 

BT has doubled the price of the live ECL/EEL rights to £900m in order to outbid Sky and ITV and become the sole owner from 2015/16 to 2017/18 BT can easily absorb these extra costs through cost savings in other parts of its business, but the direct revenue returns through subscription charges and advertising on BT Sport are expected to fall far below the annual rights payments of £300m BT’s Euro victory is not a game changer in itself, but eyes are now firmly fixed on the next auction in about 18 months time of live PL rights, which could prove to be an inflationary bloodbath for all market participants

Germany’s Sky platform has shifted focus from maximising net additions to improving quality of new recruits, delivering accelerated ARPU growth and a likely future reduction in churn.

In 2014, Sky will turn back to more proactive recruitment, but we caution against expectations of an improvement in the underlying trend growth rate.

Sky is in on course to deliver its first full year positive EBITDA in 2013, although we still don’t expect cash flow to follow suit before FY 2015.

the Times

8 November 2013

Claire Enders was quoted in an article discussing the Champions League rights auction. She said that both BT and Sky would be careful not to appear desperate to win the Champions League rights following previous financial guidance to investors. "Both companies will be thinking very carefully about what signal to send out" she added.

 

Virgin Media had a very solid quarter, with cable households returning to growth, cable revenue up 4%, underlying group revenue up 2%, and underlying OCF up 3% despite extra content costs weighing

Subscriber net adds were not as strong as last year, when DSL competitors were weakened by supply constraints, but there is little sign of a substantial impact from BT Sport or TalkTalk and BT’s YouView-based TV offerings

BT’s foray into sport has however had an effect on profitability, as it has with BT itself and Sky, with Virgin Media’s premium content costs rising from both BT and Sky

the Financial Times

7 November 2013

Alice Enders was quoted in an article discussing digital music service Deezer. About Deezer's "paid subscribers" figure which includes an undisclosed number of subscribers to bundled telecoms deals who have not activated the service, she commented that it is " one of the best kept secrets out there."