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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

H3G’s 2005 results underperformed in 3 key areas: net subscriber additions were lower than promised, unit SACs were higher than promised and the group failed to reach EBITDA breakeven as promised 

2006 promises to be much worse due to a markedly bigger drop of about 11.5% in weighted share of commercial impacts in 2005, due to a number of factors (not just multichannel platform growth), and an anticipated decline of between 2% and 5% in total TV NAR in 2006. Taking a mid-value of -3.5% yields a drop in ITV plc NAR of around £180 million in 2006 

Carphone Warehouse

20 July 2010

Carphone Warehouse (CPW) has launched a broadband/telephony bundle which effectively offers free broadband to non-cable customers in urban areas 

O2’s purchase of Be may only have cost £50 million but its entry into UK broadband may ultimately prove an expensive distraction 

The FA Premier League Limited has set a deadline of 14:00 on Thursday 27th April 2006 for receiving bids for live televised Premier League (PL) rights under the new three-year contract due to start with the 2007/08 football season. BSkyB is everyone's favourite to win at least four out of the six packages of 23 games up for auction, but probably the maximum best-looking five under the new rules that will not allow total exclusivity. Valuing Premier League Football Rights [2006-11] addresses the question of how much BSkyB may have to bid in order to win.

The combined NTL/Telewest occupies the centre ground of the triple play space in the UK. It has long provided the triple play of TV, telephony and broadband and is now the largest ISP in the UK. However, it has historically been constrained by high prices and poor customer service.

BT Vision

20 July 2010

BT plans to launch BT Vision – its hybrid Freeview-IPTV service – in Q4 2006. The aim is to broaden the appeal of its broadband offerings and help it to withstand aggressive competition from local-loop unbundlers such as Carphone Warehouse, Wanadoo/Orange and, soon, BSkyB 

Of the three known candidates, BSkyB stands to gain the most from acquiring AOL UK’s customer base, except that it would deepen an already challenging LLU cash flow profile. Orange’s market position would also be significantly strengthened by acquiring AOL UK’s customer base, with the added benefit of displacing a potentially harmful rival in BSkyB 

The FAPL has just auctioned six packages of televised live Premier League (PL) rights, each comprising 23 games, for the three years commencing autumn 2008. The total consideration of £1,714 million is 67% up on the £1,024 million BSkyB is now paying over three years for the same number of live PL games 

Barça cannot afford to dispense with Sogecable’s support as a pay-TV partner and possessor of contracts with the other leading clubs. A deal has to be struck 

Illiad’s new Freebox in France promises savings of ‘up to’ 40% for mobile users by using Wi-Fi to make mobile calls at home, creating fears that it will harm the French mobile industry 

BSkyB plans to unbundle 1,200 exchanges by the end of 2007, enabling it to offer shared or full LLU to 70% of UK homes. It will offer ‘free’ broadband up to 2Mb to all and only Sky DTH customers served by its unbundled exchanges. Or they can pay a little more, £5 and £10 a month respectively, for broadband up to 8 Mb or 16 Mb. In addition, all Sky Broadband customers will be able to take BSkyB’s telephony offer, Sky Talk for an additional £14 a month, which includes line rental and unlimited calls in the UK.

The experience of Versatel (now owned by Tele2) in The Netherlands provides a cautionary tale for new entrant altnets hoping to use premium content to gain broadband market share in a well-contested and maturing broadband market (58% household penetration). In late 2004,Versatel was the surprise winner of the 2000-2008 broadcast licence for the domestic football league Eredivisie (carried only by Versatel and licensed to satellite TV), but Versatel's broadband market share and that of other unbundlers fell in 2005 while those of incumbent KPN (operating under three brands) and cable rose.

We welcome that the company appears to be de-emphasising 3G, with SACs reduced and 3G as a percentage of handset sales dropping from 20% to 12%. Unfortunately, just as Vodafone is recovering from the 3G industry fad, it seems keen to get distracted by another – convergence 

Eircom

20 July 2010

The directors of Eircom, the Irish incumbent, have recommended acceptance of a joint offer from Babcock and Brown Capital and the Eircom Employee Share Ownership Trust 

But BT’s cost performance is improving. Group EBITDA growth has accelerated whilst capital expenditure has been held steady, increasing cash flow (EBITDA minus capital expenditure)