Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The research by Enders Analysis accuses Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft of "ambivalence and inertia" over a problem it says costs broadcasters revenue and puts users at an increased risk of cyber-crime.

Gareth Sutcliffe and Ollie Meir, who authored the research, described the Amazon Fire Stick - which they argue is the device many people use to access illegal streams - as "a piracy enabler".

Enders say there are often multiple streams of individual events - such as high profile football games - each of which can have tens of thousands of people watching them.

“What perhaps the AI ‘black box’ can guarantee is a certain level of performance from advertisers who otherwise aren’t savvy about more manual campaign management,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “And Amazon has to offer this solution competitively with Google and Meta’s equivalents to ensure it’s offering the full suite of expected services, as more advertisers get used to buying this way.”

 

BT hit its FY25 guidance of a modest revenue decline coupled with modest EBITDA growth, and expects more of the same in FY26.

The highlight of the results was consumer broadband returning to subscriber growth despite the altnet onslaught; the lowlight was an increasing decline in Openreach broadband subscribers thanks to other Openreach customers (e.g. TalkTalk) not doing so well.

BT’s longer-term outlook and prospects for a dramatic cashflow turnaround remain strong, with Openreach net losses much more likely to improve than worsen over the next year, and further steps taken to divest/isolate erratic non-UK business segments.
 

Gerry Cardinale of RedBird Capital is poised to take the reins of the Telegraph Media Group (TMG) after two years of unforeseen events that led to an unfortunate limbo at TMG.

We anticipate Gerry Cardinale will be vetted under the “public interest” regime for newspapers, which should be a smooth process and conclude by September 2025.

The saga of TMG provoked a new regime for foreign state-owned investors that is a new constraint on all media mergers.

Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.

Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.

Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.

Karen Egan, at Enders Analysis, said: “Openreach, like the other established players, are suffering line losses as a consequence of the alt-net fibre goldrush, and TalkTalk customer declines.

“It makes things tough for now but the free cashflow recovery story is not at risk and the line losses should moderate as the alt-nets no longer have the funding to expand their networks.”