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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Iliad has made an attractive offer for Vodafone Italy, to initially form a joint venture but to ultimately give Iliad the right to buy Vodafone's stake.

Vodafone management may be more keen on a less transformative, but easier, deal with Fastweb, retaining Vodafone's presence in Italy.

Iliad's announcement is likely aimed at highlighting to shareholders and the Vodafone board that a more value-creative deal is on the table, even if management appetite is not there for it just yet.

That could marginally decrease the ads’ effectiveness but isn’t a massive threat, according to Joseph Teasdale, head of tech at London-based research outfit Enders Analysis. “The search side of the business is fine. Ninety percent of the effectiveness is in the keywords,” Teasdale said. Amazon took in more than $30 billion in ad revenue in the first nine months of this year.

 

Rich in twists and turns, the saga of the sale of the Telegraph takes place in a context of great turmoil for the British press. For many observers, this is a form of litmus test () for the real value influential newspapers in the digital age. “It’s true, confirms the managing director of Enders Analysis, Douglas McCabe, a recognized expert in the media industry across the Channel,  the battle of the 'Telegraph' serves as a litmus test for the 'quality' British press. in a pivotal period of upsurge.

For Alice Enders, one of the best Enders Analysis experts, the path remains complicated for the Redbird IMI tandem. “But the operation is likely to succeed because the United Emirates are very important allies of the British government and have promised to invest 10 billion pounds in five years in the UK.”She is confident the deal will go ahead, even if Paul Marshall still enjoys significant political support.

The UK’s ‘zombie’ economy—largely flat since March 2022—is due to the cost-of-living crisis weighing on households, with this exacerbated in 2023 by the rising cost of credit. Real private expenditure growth will be weakly positive in 2024 before strengthening in 2025 as headwinds recede

Our 2023 forecast of a nominal rise but real decline in display advertising was realised, with TV’s revenues falling while digital display rose. Advertiser spend online is justified by the channel’s size and growth, worth an estimated £406 billion in 2023

For 2024, much lower inflation and mildly positive real private expenditure growth points to 3-4% display advertising growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025

The Premier League deal will help to guarantee Sky’s future by removing a risk to its TV subscription base, even as the cost of living crisis is hitting the mobile and broadband market.



Under Strong’s three-year tenure, the broadcaster had been able to bring its US parent “on board with Sky’s objectives” — including signing the cheque for more than £5bn for the rights.

 

Service revenue growth was broadly flat this quarter as some unwinding of price increases was compensated by a pickup in roaming revenues.

Vodafone has made some progress on its turnaround plan: it has sold its ailing Spanish unit; is rumoured to be in talks about a deal in Italy; and its German business is (just) back to growth (for now).

We expect muted guidance for 2024 with lower prospective price increases for most, inflated cost bases, and continued consolidation uncertainty.

Ofcom’s plan to ban inflation-linked price rises creates a headache for most operators, but the financial hit will not be felt for years, if then (depending on their replacement).

Ofcom is correct in pointing out some of the drawbacks of the practice, but it will likely be replaced by an alternative tactic that may well end up being worse for consumers.

The unintended consequences could be significant, with a period of uncertainty for operators, low-end plans less appealing to offer, and poor signaling to investors in the sector.