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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Francois Godard, senior media and telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis, puts it another way: “European TV had it too good for too long.”

“We’ve seen a change of pace recently with ITVX and RTL+ in Germany,” Enders’ Godard. says “ITVX is releasing more content online before the linear channel. It is conceived as a destination rather than ITV Hub, which was catch up.”

As Europe’s commercial networks come to grips with streaming, they are also wrestling with shape of their wider businesses. Analysts expect consolidation of one form or the other to follow over the coming decades, as scale becomes ever more decisive. Enders’ Godard says it’s a “trial-and-error environment” right now but adds he would be “reassured” if the thinking was “more collective.”

“Microsoft has clearly missed the 2023 holiday marketing window given how long this approval process has taken,” Gareth Sutcliffe, senior games analyst at Enders Analysis, told IGN. “It’s going to be well into 2024 before we start to see the first signs of joint marketing and other combined initiatives with Activision franchises.”

“The replacement of senior leadership starting with CEO Bobby Kotick and Blizzard President Mike Ybarra is inevitable and long overdue,” Sutcliffe said. “It’s difficult to envisage much of the rest of the senior leadership at Activision remaining long term given their compensation was grossly out of proportion to Activision results, and which Microsoft would be wise to recalibrate quickly.”

Douglas McCabe, the chief executive of Enders Analysis, estimates the sunset on the traditional printed national newspaper model will potentially be around 2030.

McCabe, of Enders Analysis, says: “Newspapers still have tremendous influence, and are still originators of the news agenda. These assets do not come to market very often. The Telegraph represents an extraordinary and rare opportunity to buy influence that, if it wasn’t up for sale, money couldn’t buy.”

Disney's fight for the streaming crown causes further problems: Due to this focus, Disney reaches fewer people via other channels such as TV or cinema, which are particularly important for brand building for families, says François Godard, analyst at the London consulting firm Enders Analysis. “Disney not only needs to make its streaming service profitable, but also focus attention on its iconic content to feed theme parks and merchandising.”

YouTube has just introduced Primetime Channels in the UK, following launches in the US and Germany, becoming another video-content aggregator in a crowded market.

The US has carried YouTube's subscription revenue boom—layering on a premium video marketplace in the UK may prove harder to achieve.

Google's NFL Sunday Ticket package offers exclusive, high-end content to US consumers. Primetime Channels' UK launch just a few weeks before the Premier League auction is interesting timing, but will not change the game.

“Mark has been a very good financial steward of the company,” Claire Enders, founder of Enders Analysis, adds, noting some doubters had predicted WPP “would fail or fall apart” after Sorrell left.

Enders says: “Mark is a decent and wise CEO who has the confidence of the investment community and his senior managers. He’s kept it together calmly and quietly and not sought attention – unlike Sir Martin Sorrell.”

“Disney, Warners and NBC have had five years of trying to pivot to streaming services,” explains Tom Harrington, analyst at Enders Analysis. “They’re losing crazy money, but they’re supported by their legacy free-to-air networks, which are still very profitable and popular. But they’re not investing in those networks, they’re moving top programmes to streamers, fewer people are watching ads and they’re killing the cash cows.”

Harrington suggests this refinancing will be very expensive, with interest rates much higher, meaning that companies are going to start selling off subsidiaries, with Disney already touting ESPN and ABC for sale. A spate of M&A deals looms — in which the more sanguine and cash-rich operators such as Apple could clean up in a fire sale, acquiring, say, ESPN sports rights at bargain prices.