François Godard, an analyst with Enders Analysis, added that starting a channel from scratch was risky.
“If the league wanted to launch their own channel, I think it’s a dead end. You’ll end up doing contracts with Canal+ and DAZN to distribute it, so it’s back to square one,” he said. “And it’s not a business you’re good at as a league.”
Niamh Burns, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis, told The Media Leader that the latest Bellwether’s main media splits “encapsulate the theme that has characterised the last decade: online is growing (though modestly here) while everyone else is under pressure”.
She added: “This is a well-worn path for business as budgets are squeezed: a flight to direct-response channels, which offer more certainty in the short term.”
“If you can connect brands to a strong source of robust data and [sales] conversions, that could be powerful, but stitching it all together is very hard work,” says Jamie MacEwan, an analyst at Enders Analysis. “On paper, it looks simple. You have great customer data and you can see when sales complete, but the metrics and data aren’t easy to match up.”
“A streamer tax is never, never going to happen [in the U.K.], forget about it,” says Claire Enders, founder of media research group Enders Analysis. “Netflix invested $6 billion in U.K. production, they aren’t stealing anything, they are writing checks to good people.” With British public broadcasters under pressure from rising costs and budget constraints and commercial networks suffering from a chronically-weak ad market, she notes, “we are absolutely lucky to have Netflix, Disney+ and anyone else who wants to make shows here.”
“Europe isn’t moving, but the U.K. will acquiesce to all the demands of the Americans in the digital space,” says Enders
Even this option wouldn't be a perfect solution for the LFP, given the degradation of the "L1 product" since the Mediapro incident. Since then, viewership has declined and rights prices have plummeted. "L1 needs to rebuild its brand, and to do that, the option of broadcasting on free TV shouldn't be ruled out," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. "At the current price, I'm convinced that TF1 could buy one match per week, or even ten matches per season. And the rest would remain on a paid service. This would be the real way to get out of the rut and rebuild the bond with the French people."
Karen Egan, of Enders Analysis, said: “There are certainly some opportunities for cross-selling Vodafone’s broadband product to Three’s 9.3m mobile subscribers, but broadband is a really tough market right now with very slim margins so they’ll be quite constrained in the level of incentive discounts they can offer.”
But few analysts believe the scale of the cost increases was predicted. “I’m not sure anyone would have put together a model with a 46 per cent tariff, so this is going to be the key question as in the US market they may well have to move the price,” says Gareth Sutcliffe at Enders Analysis.
The industry, however, welcomes the relatively high pricing of the games — hoping that it sets a new standard. “Nintendo can clearly move its pricing on its top franchises,” says Sutcliffe. “That is clearly the new premium price point for all AAA games and they are providing premium games.”
Gaming revenue has been broadly flat for several years, according to Sutcliffe of Enders Analysis, with software sales compensating for declining demand for ageing Xbox and PlayStation consoles.
Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis, said the extent of Sky’s commitment had previously been unclear. “As such, any indications that they are fully backing CityFibre will be very well received,” she added.
But as Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis pointed out, Substack only makes money by taking a 10% cut of its writers’ subscriptions, so it has no financial stake in a free newsletter whose sole purpose is to reach as wide an audience as possible.
“That eliminates some risk, but it’s no cast-iron guarantee – anyone could start a far-right newsletter, for example, and then it’s up to Substack to determine if it should be taken down,” MacEwan said. “Last year it faced a user backlash for refusing to demonetize newsletters that were publishing extreme right-wing views. These questions aren’t just going to go away, especially if Substack rolls out new personalization or discoverability features.”
“Economic slowdown or recession and reduced consumer spend would naturally impact ad budgets,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior media analyst at research group Enders Analysis. “[It] is a real risk because of the sheer scale of the tariffs and their impact on the actual flow of goods.”
He told The Media Leader that business confidence also “shouldn’t be underrated as a factor, because marketing plans are based on business plans and the uncertainty around tariffs will put some of those into a holding pattern”.
“Europe and the UK may look like more attractive regions for these businesses in light of US policies, but that still won’t make up for the wider economic turmoil caused by tariffs,” MacEwan explained.