Any actual enforcement isn’t pegged until 2026. The CMS has deliberately broken up its measures into three waves to speed up the first wave, said Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at media analysis firm Enders. “It just goes to show how slow the regulatory process is compared to tech companies’ ability to iterate and transform their products at speed,” he said. “Google’s new products are already impacting publishers, and it is only likely to go further, so any delay could mean extra months adapting to a difficult operating environment.”  

It’s a bit of a tight-rope walk for the CMA. “Finding a middle ground on things like fair ranking, the CMS could upset Google and publishers alike if it isn’t careful,” added MacEwan. “A key tension is between principles-based and outcomes-based regulation.”

Research by Enders Analysis showed that the UK’s network operators lost contract subscribers for the first time last year, while MVNOs gained 1.65 million.

The research specialist attributes the rise of virtual operators to the cost of living crisis and longer handset lifespans, which has increased demand for Sim-only contracts, “a traditional area of strength” for the MVNOs.

That being said, Tom Harrington, Enders Analysis Head of Television, pointed out that Netflix and TF1 have had a close relationship for some time.

He noted that TF1 boss Rodolphe Belmer used to sit on Netflix’s board and that the two companies are working on Tout Pour La Lumière, the streamer’s first daily drama series, or soap, in France, which was itself branded game-changing when unveiled late last year.

“[TF1] has also no doubt noticed the performance of some of its programming that has been licensed to Netflix compared to on [on-demand service] TF1+ – the ability of certain broadcaster content to find a new audience on Netflix and thrive has been a recurrent theme in most territories over the past decade,” he wrote. Only last year, we explored how the UK was experiencing a Suits effect as older, rather parochial British broadcaster shows found themselves being given a second lease of life on the Netflix most-watched list.

Francois Goddard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, noted that women’s football received a bump from the 2022 tournament. It looks like the same thing could happen again at the end of this summer too.

It’s a good move for Disney, according to Goddard, because the company “needs more content in Europe, more local content and more regular content.”

Advertisers are increasingly interested in women’s sport too. In the age of subscriptions and streaming, live sports are still a popular placement for advertising. “This makes it even more attractive as an option for local, regular content,” says Goddard. As with the price of the rights, the cost of advertising against women’s sport is understood to be less than in men’s sports, providing marketers and brands with a way to make their money go further in the sports space.

“This is a very innovative deal,” with “nothing of the sort elsewhere,” Enders Analysis analyst François Godard tells The Hollywood Reporter. “It pivots Netflix into aggregation.”

Will Netflix bring this approach to other markets? “They could,” the expert says. “They are a trial-and-error company. So maybe they will wait first to see how it goes in France.”

The Bouygues subsidiary has accepted that its brand will be "swallowed up" by a larger entity, even though Netflix will offer its subscribers in France a TF1 section. "They have bet that their programs are strong enough to emerge," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders.

TF1 is also demonstrating opportunism. Rodolphe Belmer is showing that the channel can be useful to the global streaming leader and isn't stuck in the old world. TF1 is thus maximizing its exposure. "TF1 doesn't want to be overwhelmed by the abundance of content and must remain the leader. Hence the importance of being the first to conclude a deal, and not with just anyone," the analyst continues.

For the Californian group, this alliance also represents a way to "keep the public on its platform," adds François Godard. While offering a wider range of programs, including, for the first time, news and a news channel (LCI).

“PMPs have become the cornerstone of premium publishers’ strategies to remain relevant in online advertising,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at media analyst firm Enders. “Yields are much higher than on open marketplaces, and there is a level of client service and customization around aspects like takeovers and visibility that cannot be offered on open programmatic,” he added. 

The Guardian’s programmatic ad strategy should help it compete more effectively in an increasingly automated and AI-driven ad landscape, according to MacEwan. “It [unifying operations] builds in recognition and trust in the brand, it allows for more innovation and for cut-through with clients at a time when AI buying tools risk smoothing publishers out of existence for some ad buyers.” He also said the move is a way for the Guardian to “scale up its defence” against that outcome, removing any friction that could be a competitive disadvantage in this “new operating environment.” 

MVNOs, as they are known, account for 19 per cent of the UK market, thinks Enders Analysis. On current trends they could surpass a quarter by 2028, according to Assembly Research. 

It is possible. Traditional mobile carriers have strong brands, their own stores, and tie in users through combined network and handset deals. But as handsets last longer and refurbished kit gets more popular, customers are increasingly looking beyond traditional carriers, helped by online price comparison. In the UK, the proportion of handsets sold without a contract has risen about 50 per cent since the pandemic, according to Enders Analysis. 

“These linear networks are still profitable and still throw off more cash than streaming, mainly because they now spend almost nothing on programming,” says Tom Harrington, analyst at Enders Analysis.

“But they’re declining and public companies are about improving your metrics, not whether those metrics are fundamentally good in the first place. It's never about actual profitability or actual revenue. It's the increase of revenues that public companies prefer and we're at the tail end of the transition from linear to digital.”

“Movies are always a risk, but HBO has been profitable, very profitable, for a very long time,” says Harrington. “Streaming is the new cable in America. There will be consolidation there – people don’t need five or six subscriptions – but the value in how video is monetised is moving from one place to another, and so there has to be this restructuring.”

The UK has hundreds of altnets that are building out smaller networks to challenge the dominance of BT’s Openreach and Virgin Media O2. Altnets — which collectively serve 16.4mn homes according to the Independent Networks Cooperative Association — have received more than £17.4bn of investment since 2020. 

But they have since been squeezed by a rise in interest rates and a dramatic increase in costs. Altnets collectively lost more than £1.3bn in 2023, according to Enders Analysis.