"Canal+ could even seek to obtain more than just distribution," says François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis. If the group comes to the aid of the LFP this season, it may be by drawing down the rights for next season, this time exclusively, as it initially wanted to do.
The history between Canal+ and Ligue 1 is complicated. But the decision to drop pricey Disney rights and instead do a deal with Warner for its Max streaming bundles is a clear sign that the company is paying much more attention to content costs than it did five years ago, said François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis.
At the same time, spending is being concentrated on the biggest sports properties, such as the English Premier League. “Secondary rights [such as Bundesliga and Serie A in France or La Liga in Spain] are attracting far less interest,” said Godard. “They think that people subscribe for the top product and that the rest is only nice to have.”
“Long-term, I do think streamers will take a bigger role in sport. Disney already has deep roots with ESPN and needs to expand reach in Europe,” said Godard. “Sports, especially league-based, are great for reducing churn – people keep coming back. It’s also a way to cross-promote other content.”
In 2024 the UK’s MVNOs, such as Tesco Mobile and Lebara, added 1.6mn customers to their networks, while the four largest traditional operators collectively lost 180,000 subscribers, according to research by Enders Analysis. That was the first year in history they had seen a decline.
Rogan’s interpretation is not quite right: viewers will have to pay to watch UFC fights, but as part of a monthly subscription, rather than through pay-per-view. It is a change of approach that has been coming for some time, according to François Godard, a media and telecoms specialist at Enders Analysis, a UK research house.
“Pay-per-view is perhaps not in terminal decline, but it is vanishing,” he said. “It emerged at a time when consumers were familiar with the idea of renting a tape or a disc of a movie. The public is less open to that now. The concept of renting a piece of content has all but disappeared.”
“There is nothing new here,” said Godard. “This was true of subscription TV, too. If you had to choose one piece of content, you’d choose sports. But the larger story is still one of fragmentation: most of those people who want to watch UFC on Paramount will probably want to watch other sports, and for that they still need other subscriptions.”
For the Premier League, this climate increasingly appears to be the new normal. “Eventually streamers will buy more football rights,” says Francois Godard from Enders Analysis. “But I see no reason why prices of football rights in the UK would increase now.”
“Youth viewing of sports has declined only at the margin – in sharp contrast with youth viewing of other TV,” notes Godard. “We see sports audie
For young fans, there are more alternative ways to follow matches than ever before. On the Sky Sports YouTube channel, fans can watch three-minute highlight packages of all matches – including 3pm kick-offs – within minutes of the games finishing. Such clips widen the Premier League’s reach and increase exposure for sponsors, Godard says.
Jamie MacEwan, senior media analyst at Enders Analysis, said S4’s interest in a deal looked like a tacit acknowledgment that its focus on tech clients “had flopped”.
The deal could be an “attractive expansion” to S4’s portfolio of activities and shows it’s “willing to take on expertise in serving a wide range of clients,” he added.
“It is a cornucopia of football,” says François Godard, a sports media analyst at Enders Analysis. “Certainly it will be the biggest we’ve ever seen in terms of numbers of viewers.”
Staff have nothing to fear. “They’re not going to sell Channel 5,” she said, pointing to the broadcaster’s profits and the leadership of Rose, a “great diplomat” whom she predicts will win the affections of Paramount’s next owners.
The other considerable uncertainty facing 5 concerns Rose herself. A former longstanding executive of Channel 4, many in the sector identify her as a star candidate to return as the company’s next chief executive. Some even think she could replace Tim Davie as director-general of the BBC. Enders thinks Rose will stay put.
Enders Analysis’ Rome-based media and telecoms analyst François Godard says the partnership bonanza “came out of nowhere for me.” You’d never see this in America, he adds. The TF1/Netflix deal would be tantamount to seeing live feeds from NBC on the streamer. (That said: Never say never.)
One of Europe’s most respected media analysts, Godard adds: “I was positively impressed because you see European commercial TV trying to do something and not saying, ‘We passively accept our decline!’”
Meanwhile, streamers need new avenues for growth, too. The reality is that most are “plateauing” in Europe, says Enders’ Godard, and need to lower churn, keep viewers on the platform for longer and draw demos they’re not fully reaching on their own. Analysts point to these cross-carriage deals as an effective way of stocking up on local content in order to achieve all of the above.
Still, analysts pointed to underlying trends in the market, like a decline in broadband and mobile customers, that risk “clouding the German recovery story,” Karen Egan, an analyst with Enders Analysis, wrote in a note.