“Investors don’t like uncertainty, and even if the far right doesn’t win the majority, it will be a weak coalition government,” French media analyst Francois Godard tells Variety. In the near future, probably very little. Echoing how it has approached most areas of policymaking (quite possibly so the Conservatives can implode by themselves without risking putting their necks on the line), the Labour Pary, led by Keir Starmer, has said very little about its plans. As Claire Enders of Enders Analysis notes, “we currently don’t know” who might be taking over as secretary of state for culture, media and sport, with current shadow minister Thangam Debbonaire not certain to win her seat in the city of Bristol thanks to a surge in support for the local left-wing Green Party candidate. “Ideas of privatization are from the right-wing playbook, so you can see them cropping up in France, in the Netherlands and everywhere where there’s an extreme right-wing politician,” says Enders.
Dugmore’s prognosis is one with which Abi Watson, senior media analyst at Enders Analysis, agrees. “Resonating with young people is not about having this patronising view that Gen Z and young millennials want their news to be overly simple and dumbed down in order for it to appeal to them,” she tells City A.M. “Far more important is that it is in the format and tone that works well on the platforms it’s posted.” “It’s obviously not just young people that get a lot of their news from videos social media, but they are always the first adaptors of new technology,” says Enders’s Watson. “Outlets’ reach is gained from platforms like Instagram and TikTok, which helps build awareness of the brand, and that can help inculcate a more committed following and native browsing.”
“Disney’s parks, cruises, theatre shows and merchandise is 30-40 per cent of revenue and a big majority of profits,” says Tom Harrington of industry experts Enders Analysis. Although Netflix is some way behind them, Disney, he says, “is the obvious North Star when it comes to creating entire worlds around IP creations and characters”. “In the US the company’s growth is now driven by getting existing subscribers to pay more – or getting freeloading users to pay for the first time – which will inevitably reach a ceiling,” explains Harrington. “Netflix needs to start building complementary businesses if it wants to keep an upward trajectory. These include gaming and advertising but also growing merchandising and experiences which if executed should only intensify fandom of its bigger brands and increase engagement.”
Francois Godard, senior media analyst at Enders and author of the recently published book “Germany, France and Postwar Democratic Capitalism: Expert Rule,” says France’s standing with international financiers is crucial to the local economy because the “country is Europe’s primary destination for foreign direct investments.” Addressing potential consequences on the French media industry and ongoing consolidation, Godard said “if foreign financiers start deserting, it will put French companies in a difficult situation to borrow money because interest rates will inevitably go up.” France is home of some of Europe’s biggest media groups, including Vivendi, Banijay and Mediawan.