The Bank lowers UK growth forecast

9 August 2016

The Bank’s monetary stimulus will help restore confidence and smooth the economy’s post-referendum transition

If the Bank is right, the economy will avoid a recession and bounce back in Q2 2017

An advertising recession in 2017 still looks likely until the consumer gets his wind back and a growth path emerges

Recent reports

TikTok on a countdown: Divest or ban bill signed into law

25 April 2024

TikTok has been dealt a devastating blow as a US bill has been signed into law forcing owner ByteDance to sell within a year or face its removal from app stores.

The stakes are higher than in 2020—China's opposition to a divestment will make an optimal sale harder to conclude, so all sides must be prepared for a ban.

The TikTok bill introduces extraordinary new powers in the context of the US and China's broad systemic rivalry, though online consumer benefits will be limited.

Access report

Bundesliga auction suspended: DAZN steps up ambitions

24 April 2024

The German football league has suspended its media rights auction after protests by DAZN over the award of the top package.

DAZN surprised the market by aiming to become the Bundesliga’s primary broadcaster.

The situation in Germany reveals the contradictory impulses weighing on leagues at rights auctions.

Access report

AI, press and licensing: Deals for the chosen few

22 April 2024

Big news publishers are pursuing licensing deals with AI companies, chiefly OpenAI. Not all publishers will see a substantial return; while some news may be important for training AI models, not all publisher content will be.

Litigation is a threat point when negotiations stall (see the New York Times), but the copyright status of Large Language Models (LLMs) is uncertain. In the UK, there has been no government intervention (on copyright or otherwise) that could facilitate licensing.

Publishers’ bargaining position is strongest when it comes to up-to-date material that could be important in powering some AI consumer products. They should seek deals to support their journalism, while bearing in mind the risk that new products may get between them and their readers.

Access report