BT: The altnet threat starts to recede
BT had a solid Q3 in financial terms, with various oneoffs hitting headline growth rates but underlying trends very much robust.
The highlight was reduced broadband line losses for Openreach, both in the quarter and in prospect, with retail altnets slowing faster than CityFibre improves.
Recent developments put the pace of altnet consolidation in doubt, but we expect reduced pressure on BT Consumer and Openreach in 2026 regardless.
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CityFibre is progressing well on subscriber growth and EBITDA, albeit consolidation is going much more slowly than we (and likely they) expected.
Recent developments point to altnet consolidation accelerating in 2026, with CityFibre and VMO2 still by far the most likely acquirors.
The impact on the rest of the sector is that some much-needed relief to the retail broadband market is likely, albeit with altnet wholesale gains accelerating
Sustained decline: UK broadband trends Q3 2025
4 December 2025Broadband market revenue continued to decline by 1% in Q3, thanks to stagnant broadband volumes and weak ARPU growth.
Pricing is declining at 5-10% per annum as a modest retail altnet slowdown is countered by TalkTalk losses moderating, and competitive pressure remains intense.
Recovery looks very much dependent on the retail altnets consolidating into a more sustainable wholesale model.
UK Altnets: Something's got to give
24 November 2025Altnet losses expanded to £1.5bn in 2024, as EBITDA losses persisted and interest costs rose sharply, with ARPUs weakening and operating costs stubbornly high, and the increasing interest burden looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario.
Even the best performing altnets can barely make EBITDA breakeven, and not make sufficient margins to cover ongoing customer acquisition investment, resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors.
The impact on the rest of the sector is worsening in the short term as pricing falls, but this should accelerate the inevitable consolidation into a sustainable wholesale model under CityFibre and/or VMO2/nexfibre.
BT: Grace under pressure
12 November 2025BT’s financial performance in Q2 was much the same as the previous quarter, despite growing pressure on consumer and wholesale broadband from altnets and competitive responses to them.
We see this pressure easing in time, due to roll-out slowdowns and the inevitable consolidation of the altnet industry into a wholesale model, but there may be some tricky quarters ahead.
Current full year guidance looks nonetheless very achievable and sustained growth thereafter looks likely, with earlier rather than later consolidation good for BT as well as the altnets themselves.
BT: Surprisingly strong Openreach
28 July 2025BT started its FY26 with robust financials. Revenue was slightly weak due to handsets and international, but EBITDA was slightly ahead of expectations, and operating metrics were strong.
The highlight was Openreach posting its lowest broadband line losses for over a year despite ongoing altnet pressure, and keeping revenue growth positive despite reduced inflationary price increases.
The altnet threat is still far from over, but it is encouraging that there are signs that it is beginning to wane as the sub-sector moves to a more rational wholesale model.
CityFibre is progressing well on subscriber growth and EBITDA, albeit consolidation is going much more slowly than we (and likely they) expected.
Recent developments point to altnet consolidation accelerating in 2026, with CityFibre and VMO2 still by far the most likely acquirors.
The impact on the rest of the sector is that some much-needed relief to the retail broadband market is likely, albeit with altnet wholesale gains accelerating
Sustained decline: UK broadband trends Q3 2025
4 December 2025Broadband market revenue continued to decline by 1% in Q3, thanks to stagnant broadband volumes and weak ARPU growth.
Pricing is declining at 5-10% per annum as a modest retail altnet slowdown is countered by TalkTalk losses moderating, and competitive pressure remains intense.
Recovery looks very much dependent on the retail altnets consolidating into a more sustainable wholesale model.
UK Altnets: Something's got to give
24 November 2025Altnet losses expanded to £1.5bn in 2024, as EBITDA losses persisted and interest costs rose sharply, with ARPUs weakening and operating costs stubbornly high, and the increasing interest burden looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario.
Even the best performing altnets can barely make EBITDA breakeven, and not make sufficient margins to cover ongoing customer acquisition investment, resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors.
The impact on the rest of the sector is worsening in the short term as pricing falls, but this should accelerate the inevitable consolidation into a sustainable wholesale model under CityFibre and/or VMO2/nexfibre.
BT: Grace under pressure
12 November 2025BT’s financial performance in Q2 was much the same as the previous quarter, despite growing pressure on consumer and wholesale broadband from altnets and competitive responses to them.
We see this pressure easing in time, due to roll-out slowdowns and the inevitable consolidation of the altnet industry into a wholesale model, but there may be some tricky quarters ahead.
Current full year guidance looks nonetheless very achievable and sustained growth thereafter looks likely, with earlier rather than later consolidation good for BT as well as the altnets themselves.
BT: Surprisingly strong Openreach
28 July 2025BT started its FY26 with robust financials. Revenue was slightly weak due to handsets and international, but EBITDA was slightly ahead of expectations, and operating metrics were strong.
The highlight was Openreach posting its lowest broadband line losses for over a year despite ongoing altnet pressure, and keeping revenue growth positive despite reduced inflationary price increases.
The altnet threat is still far from over, but it is encouraging that there are signs that it is beginning to wane as the sub-sector moves to a more rational wholesale model.