BT's direct access broadband product attracted a lot of attention last week. This note examines the likely scale of demand for the product over the next four years. We conclude that although the product does have a niche among sophisticated users, the number of prospective customers is very unlikely to exceed 1 million. BT forecasts several times this number.
We use this report to show that, while camera phones have been important in Japan, they have actually added very little to ARPU. Their primary effect has been to attract high spending customers to J-Phone, Japan's innovator in this area. The rate of uptake in Japan has been encouraged by highly subsidised handsets (less than or around €150 or £100), and very low prices for sending and receiving pictures (12 € cents or 8 pence each).