Future of French public TV: Ditching licence fee undermines fragile independence

31 March 2022

Campaigning for re-election next month, President Macron has promised to scrap the licence fee without proposing any specific replacement

Without stable and predictable revenues, the exposure of France Télévisions to political pressures will increase. Capacity to fund long-term projects may weaken

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Broadcast transition to IP: Accelerating, but a long way to go on DTT

1 October 2024

Broadcasters are accelerating their transformation into digital-first businesses. We estimate that 17% of broadcasters' viewing on the TV set will have been delivered by IP this year.

FTA platforms have a more complex migration pathway to IP than pay-TV. Given the existing strength of DTT, and its older demographic profile, DTT will account for more broadcaster viewing hours than satellite/cable combined by 2029.

By 2040, we estimate that half of all broadcaster viewing will be via IP, with broadcast delivery remaining strong due to the live schedule.

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TAR 2026: You can’t always get what you want…

1 October 2024

In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets.

On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.

The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.

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Tread lightly: Response to the CMA’s proposed remedies to the Vodafone-Three merger

30 September 2024

This report is free to access

We view the CMA's proposed remedies to the Vodafone/Three merger as workable, but not necessary.

While acknowledging the reassurance that short-term pricing commitments can provide, we are of the view that going too far risks distorting a highly competitive market.

Aggressive MVNO pricing commitments, in particular, could amplify a significant drain on the operators' capacity to invest, threatening the network promises that the companies are making.

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