The General Election in May 2015: Context and potential outcomes

15 December 2014

The General Election in May 2015 looks to be one of the most unpredictable in living memory. A hung parliament seems the most likely outcome, but the likely government after May is still unclear. Whereas in previous elections there were at most three swings that mattered, between the Lib Dems, Labour and the Conservatives, in this one there are arguably 10 or 11. There has been a huge increase in complexity, which, along with the virtually neck-and-neck polls, is what makes the outcome so much harder to predict.

In this report, we describe the context of this election, analyse the prospects for each party, and illustrate three possible outcomes of the election, detailing what would be necessary for each of them to occur, and what sort of government each of them would lead to.

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