ITV: Returning to 2019 levels

ITV continues to battle the stop-start nature of Britain’s reaction to COVID-19, with Q3 and Q4’s cautious advertising recovery stunted by the current lockdown. However, from April onwards things are expected to be looking up.

Studios has been hit similarly hard, with worldwide stoppages on content production, but ITV notes that over 90% of productions are back in production.

UK subscriber numbers for BritBox were announced for the first time—it hit 500k in January—the number being neither alarming nor particularly impressive.

Advertising demand has risen, with total ad revenue down just 7% in Q3, and Q4 expected to be slightly up—this means ITV will be down just over 10% across 2020.

COVID-19 has accelerated viewing shifts, along with corporate restructuring across the entire sector to try and keep up. ITV is no exception, although the creation of its new Media and Entertainment Division may be less revolutionary than it could appear.

Studios revenue was down 19% for nine months to September but 85% of paused productions are now completed or underway, with nothing major still stalled. However, the added costs of COVID-19 protocols are material and will linger.

H2 revenue growth across Studios, advertising and online, saw ITV come in ahead of guidance in 2019, with external revenues up 3% YoY. Advertising revenue was down 1.5% for the year after being down 5% at H1.

Viewing share of a shrinking pie remained flat, holding onto 2018's share—the highest since 2005. Information on the progress of BritBox was predictably scant while the addressable ad platform, Planet V, is taking shape.

Looking forward, Covid-19 will likely affect all sectors including television—the breadth and severity is, of course, unpredictable with some initial reticence being shown through ad spend by travel brands.

ITV TV advertising was down 42% in April, better than expected—but there was no Q2 guidance. We believe ITV has outperformed the market, aided by large audiences, with 22 programmes with viewing above seven million, double the number over the same period in 2019.

The TV production stoppage hits ITV in two ways—leaving gaping holes in the schedule and cutting ITV Studios revenues. ITV Studios revenue was down 11% in Q1 (£342 million), with no guidance given for Q2 when the production shutdown will really come into effect and likely devastate previously expected revenues. ITV note that demand for library content is up, however, although much higher margin, this will only go a small way to offset lost production revenue.

The Love Island cancellation is a major blow, with the benefits that the format brings ITV—youthful, simultaneous, easily-monetisable, cross-platform engagement for six nights a week for over two months, akin to a major sports tournament that ITV owns—lost. But BritBox use and subscriptions are both up.

ITV experienced a slightly-less-than-expected 5% drop in advertising revenue which was alleviated by lower H1 content scheduling costs, reflecting the timing of major sporting events

Love Island continues to be a ray of light, increasing its viewership and guiding the ITV Family audience share to an eleven-year high, while ITV Studios revenues were down but reportedly still on track for its 2019 targets

More information was provided on the Q4 rollout of streaming service BritBox and the addressable advertising platform for ITV Hub. ITV must be active in these areas but late entry presents problems and questions