Meta unfriends TikTok: Entering the zero-sum era

The pursuit of AI-native advertising formats has landed on chat as the most feasible route to add value, although the effect is to amplify existing strengths and weaknesses.

Practical constraints are slowing the agentic transformation beyond automation. Efficiencies are still the primary value-add, with agencies and adtechs looking to offset a greater infrastructure cost burden.

The end-to-end platform model continues to win: the arena for competition is now shifting towards commerce and control of user access points as scale and data advantages persist.

Meta Connect showcased the company’s determination and ambition to compete simultaneously across multiple fiercely contested technology spaces, with Apple’s wearable products and services a primary target.

In attempting to both capture developer mindshare and change consumer perceptions of AI and wearables, Meta buried new and interesting AI developer frameworks and agentic experiences behind cartoon AI agents and a Tamagotchi-like device.

Smart glasses category expansion, and a radical VR glasses reveal, were tightly bound to AI as the missing component to assist app and service development, driving improved experiences for consumers. Meta’s hardware strategy remains US-centric with very slow international rollout for flagship devices.

Video-sharing platforms give brands unprecedented freedom to commission and distribute entertainment, but building an audience is different from buying one.

The opportunity depends on brands turning fleeting attention into lasting affinity and, ultimately, commercial value.

As brands take greater control, money and responsibilities are shifting across the value chain, creating new opportunities and risks for broadcasters, producers and creators.

A media fightback is emerging, as the creative industries respond to two years of AI disruption, and leading labs issue dire warnings against a laissez-faire approach.

A renewed push against tech’s “capture” of the value chain is visible across sectors from music to publishing.

Big tech earnings continue to blow past expectations. Those with credible gatekeeper roles and diversified revenues are benefitting this quarter.

Instagram is a $100 billion, top-three global ads business that is fast becoming Meta’s leading platform in core ad markets as Facebook faces user tipping points across the UK, US and Western Europe.

Reels capture over half of user time, making Instagram an enormous creator as well as brand platform. Instagram must decide whether to join YouTube, Netflix and Disney on the creator escalator as professional content providers seek greater rewards.

Meta’s ads war chest dwarfs YouTube’s. Unlocking it would mean giving up precious margin, so Instagram will have to make tough choices and innovate. We expect announcements at Meta Connect on how content is surfaced on Instagram, on distribution across devices, and on targeted rewards for longer formats.

TikTok has reached a billion users worldwide just four years after its global launch, much quicker than social media rivals, though its ban in India is a drag on growth.

TikTok’s popularity with under-25s has contributed to a hollowing-out of Meta’s active userbase. During the pandemic, TikTok also expanded its reach among older demographics, cementing its position within the mainstream and posing a further threat to Meta. 

TikTok could earn twice as much revenue as Snap in 2022, making it the first app to break out of the mid-league in years, with a huge runway for growth backed up by ByteDance’s remarkable success in China.