Netflix Q4 2025: Revenue strong, slow start to year

Netflix revenue grew 17% YoY in Q3, although operating income was well below expectations (-10%), hit by a $619 million tax expense in Brazil. Once again improvement in advertising revenues was noted but without any substantial detail.

UK advertising tier growth is primarily being driven by movement from more expensive ad-free tiers. This has challenged ARPU: advertising revenue does not appear to be balancing the loss from subscriptions.

With ownership of Warner Bros. Discovery likely to change, management did not specifically rule out M&A. However, it is not clear whether Netflix would be best served by the IP such a purchase would provide.

Netflix improved on its Q2 revenue and profit forecasts, driven by successful implementation of price rises and USD weakness. There continues to be little substantive information offered about the advertising business

Most of Netflix’s engagement growth is derived from its existing heavy users. Lighter users, who are more susceptible to churn, appear to be most under pressure from YouTube

In the UK, new Netflix original content no longer appears to be driving new subscriptions. This means it can be better used to shape engagement in a way that optimises monetisation

Netflix beat its own Q1 revenue and profit forecasts but an uneven outlook means that its previous 2025 projections (12-14% revenue growth with a 29% margin) remain relevant. The end of reporting of subscription numbers and ARPU means that there is less visibility on the success of advertising and its regions

UK programming is now the most efficient original content on Netflix—with a tough outlook for production, this is validation of the quality of the product produced in this country

The call for a streaming levy was badly timed with little interrogation of any consequences. Further, it fails to directly address a major problem: the declining consumption of British programming