Pandemic economy: The uncertain road ahead
In April, the first full month of lockdown, UK’s GDP fell by -20.4% month-on-month, the steepest decline on record, with further reduction expected in May. On 15 June, some non-essential premises re-open, but activity for the rest of the year will be depressed by social distancing—the UK’s recession in 2020 is certain to be the steepest on record
The UK’s furlough scheme avoided the massive loss of jobs and supported worker incomes. A steep rise in the unemployment rate is expected when furlough ends in the autumn, judging by the US experience
The UK’s recession is in step with its equally impaired trading partners, melting the UK’s trade. The UK must also contend with the economic impact of the exit from the Single Market transition, as of 2021