Persistent decline: UK broadband trends Q4 2025
Broadband market revenue growth slightly worsened in Q4 to -1.4% as volume and ARPU pressures persist.
The altnet outlook remains highly uncertain with multiple developments pointing in different directions.
Continued market decline into 2026 is likely, with a coherent (and sustainable) altnet future likely to take some time to emerge.
Related reports
UK Altnets: VMO2/nexfibre buys Netomnia
19 February 2026VMO2/nexfibre has agreed to buy Netomnia, in a complex multi-party deal involving additional wholesale deal components between VMO2 and nexfibre which will leave nexfibre wholesaling 8 million premises to VMO2, or c.40% of VMO2’s overall footprint.
The purchasers are hopeful of an easy regulatory clearance, but we fear the process may be more protracted given the high overlap and removal of a major competitor.
The impact on VMO2 and other incumbent players is prima facie positive, given that it takes out a major subscriber gainer, but we fear that it will be structurally unhelpful, with the high price encouraging other altnets to continue to disrupt in the hope of a similar take-out.
Project Gigabit: The last push will be the hardest
4 February 2026Project Gigabit has made reasonable progress in allocating subsidy contracts covering 1.1 million premises, and the contract holders look on track to complete their build-outs well before the 2032 deadline.
However, this leaves c.1.5 million premises still without the prospect of gigabit broadband, no firm steer as to when contracts covering these might be awarded, and a reduced per-home budget available to cover them.
Openreach looks likely to win most or all of these, and to take over earlier contracts should altnets pull back or fail (an increasingly likely occurrence), increasing its share of subsidised coverage from the current c.30% to around 70% or above.
Sustained decline: UK broadband trends Q3 2025
4 December 2025Broadband market revenue continued to decline by 1% in Q3, thanks to stagnant broadband volumes and weak ARPU growth.
Pricing is declining at 5-10% per annum as a modest retail altnet slowdown is countered by TalkTalk losses moderating, and competitive pressure remains intense.
Recovery looks very much dependent on the retail altnets consolidating into a more sustainable wholesale model.
UK Altnets: Something's got to give
24 November 2025Altnet losses expanded to £1.5bn in 2024, as EBITDA losses persisted and interest costs rose sharply, with ARPUs weakening and operating costs stubbornly high, and the increasing interest burden looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario.
Even the best performing altnets can barely make EBITDA breakeven, and not make sufficient margins to cover ongoing customer acquisition investment, resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors.
The impact on the rest of the sector is worsening in the short term as pricing falls, but this should accelerate the inevitable consolidation into a sustainable wholesale model under CityFibre and/or VMO2/nexfibre.
UK Altnets: VMO2/nexfibre buys Netomnia
19 February 2026VMO2/nexfibre has agreed to buy Netomnia, in a complex multi-party deal involving additional wholesale deal components between VMO2 and nexfibre which will leave nexfibre wholesaling 8 million premises to VMO2, or c.40% of VMO2’s overall footprint.
The purchasers are hopeful of an easy regulatory clearance, but we fear the process may be more protracted given the high overlap and removal of a major competitor.
The impact on VMO2 and other incumbent players is prima facie positive, given that it takes out a major subscriber gainer, but we fear that it will be structurally unhelpful, with the high price encouraging other altnets to continue to disrupt in the hope of a similar take-out.
Project Gigabit: The last push will be the hardest
4 February 2026Project Gigabit has made reasonable progress in allocating subsidy contracts covering 1.1 million premises, and the contract holders look on track to complete their build-outs well before the 2032 deadline.
However, this leaves c.1.5 million premises still without the prospect of gigabit broadband, no firm steer as to when contracts covering these might be awarded, and a reduced per-home budget available to cover them.
Openreach looks likely to win most or all of these, and to take over earlier contracts should altnets pull back or fail (an increasingly likely occurrence), increasing its share of subsidised coverage from the current c.30% to around 70% or above.Sustained decline: UK broadband trends Q3 2025
4 December 2025Broadband market revenue continued to decline by 1% in Q3, thanks to stagnant broadband volumes and weak ARPU growth.
Pricing is declining at 5-10% per annum as a modest retail altnet slowdown is countered by TalkTalk losses moderating, and competitive pressure remains intense.
Recovery looks very much dependent on the retail altnets consolidating into a more sustainable wholesale model.
UK Altnets: Something's got to give
24 November 2025Altnet losses expanded to £1.5bn in 2024, as EBITDA losses persisted and interest costs rose sharply, with ARPUs weakening and operating costs stubbornly high, and the increasing interest burden looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario.
Even the best performing altnets can barely make EBITDA breakeven, and not make sufficient margins to cover ongoing customer acquisition investment, resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors.
The impact on the rest of the sector is worsening in the short term as pricing falls, but this should accelerate the inevitable consolidation into a sustainable wholesale model under CityFibre and/or VMO2/nexfibre.