Recent reports
Industrial scale theft of video services, especially live sport, is in the ascendance. Combating piracy is a formidable challenge, providing a direct threat to profitability for broadcasters and streamers.
Big tech is both friend and foe in solving the piracy problem. Conflicting incentives harm consumer safety by providing easy discovery of illegal pirated services, and reduced friction through low-cost hardware such as the Amazon Firestick.
Over twenty years since launch, the DRM solutions provided by Google and Microsoft are in steep decline. A complete overhaul of the technology architecture, licensing, and support model is needed. Lack of engagement with content owners indicates this a low priority.
BT: Broadband gains and losses
28 May 2025BT hit its FY25 guidance of a modest revenue decline coupled with modest EBITDA growth, and expects more of the same in FY26.
The highlight of the results was consumer broadband returning to subscriber growth despite the altnet onslaught; the lowlight was an increasing decline in Openreach broadband subscribers thanks to other Openreach customers (e.g. TalkTalk) not doing so well.
BT’s longer-term outlook and prospects for a dramatic cashflow turnaround remain strong, with Openreach net losses much more likely to improve than worsen over the next year, and further steps taken to divest/isolate erratic non-UK business segments.
Vodafone: Turnaround prolonged
23 May 2025Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.
Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.
Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.