Sovereignty, satellite and strategic regret: European mobile in Q4 2026
European service revenue growth declined to -1.3% in Q4 as trouble in France weighed even more heavily.
In contrast to a couple of years ago, the Italian and Spanish markets have the most positive momentum.
Network sovereignty is driving satellite direct-to-device strategies, and may cause some regret about mobile tower sales, which are also proving more contentious than hoped.
Related reports
The wave of deal-making in the European towers sector is driven by cash-strapped telcos seeking a form of sale and leaseback financing.
While the operators are incentivised to provide a medium-term growth trajectory for these towers companies, sustainability of that growth is more questionable, especially as 5G will not require additional base stations.
Cellnex continues to insinuate itself into the UK market with its most recent deal signaling the ultimate unwinding of the MBNL JV. Further UK towers consolidation seems a long way off but could facilitate, or indeed be facilitated by, consolidation at the MNO level.
Spotlight on price increases: UK mobile market in Q3 2025
11 December 2025The expected service revenue boost from in-contract price increases failed to materialize this quarter, nullifying the upside surprise last quarter.
Traffic growth picked up again to 17%, lending further weight to the view that at least some of the recent sharp slowdown was somewhat one-off in nature.
Government statistics imply steep mobile price inflation while the opposite is true—which may help to diffuse the current furore over in-contract price increases.
In-contract price increases have been the worst of all worlds—reputationally damaging for telecoms operators but contributing (temporary) revenue growth of just half the rate of inflation. We expect the revenue boost from in-contract price increases of 5% last year to become a 2% drag from Q2 2024.
Cost inflation is, however, cumulative with an acceleration in the gulf between costs and revenues forecast from here. We expect muted financial guidance for 2024/25 from BT Consumer and Vodafone UK over the coming weeks.
Rising new-customer pricing is a necessity if margins are not to be significantly squeezed, but competitive intensity and scale economics continue to thwart such efforts, with no real resolution in sight.
Vodafone: Steady(ish)
10 February 2026Service revenue trends and themes were broadly consistent with those of last quarter, with management commentary suggesting German EBITDA decline of 8%+ this year.
Strong growth from VodafoneThree, better underlying trends in Germany, and fortuitous currency moves are all likely to be required to hit analyst estimates for next year, and there are reasons to be optimistic about prospects for at least some of them.
VodafoneThree’s mobile strategy seems to be quite defensive for now, save for a foray into the family market, and its approach to FWA looks likely to be quite cautious too.
The wave of deal-making in the European towers sector is driven by cash-strapped telcos seeking a form of sale and leaseback financing.
While the operators are incentivised to provide a medium-term growth trajectory for these towers companies, sustainability of that growth is more questionable, especially as 5G will not require additional base stations.
Cellnex continues to insinuate itself into the UK market with its most recent deal signaling the ultimate unwinding of the MBNL JV. Further UK towers consolidation seems a long way off but could facilitate, or indeed be facilitated by, consolidation at the MNO level.
Spotlight on price increases: UK mobile market in Q3 2025
11 December 2025The expected service revenue boost from in-contract price increases failed to materialize this quarter, nullifying the upside surprise last quarter.
Traffic growth picked up again to 17%, lending further weight to the view that at least some of the recent sharp slowdown was somewhat one-off in nature.
Government statistics imply steep mobile price inflation while the opposite is true—which may help to diffuse the current furore over in-contract price increases.In-contract price increases have been the worst of all worlds—reputationally damaging for telecoms operators but contributing (temporary) revenue growth of just half the rate of inflation. We expect the revenue boost from in-contract price increases of 5% last year to become a 2% drag from Q2 2024.
Cost inflation is, however, cumulative with an acceleration in the gulf between costs and revenues forecast from here. We expect muted financial guidance for 2024/25 from BT Consumer and Vodafone UK over the coming weeks.
Rising new-customer pricing is a necessity if margins are not to be significantly squeezed, but competitive intensity and scale economics continue to thwart such efforts, with no real resolution in sight.
Vodafone: Steady(ish)
10 February 2026Service revenue trends and themes were broadly consistent with those of last quarter, with management commentary suggesting German EBITDA decline of 8%+ this year.
Strong growth from VodafoneThree, better underlying trends in Germany, and fortuitous currency moves are all likely to be required to hit analyst estimates for next year, and there are reasons to be optimistic about prospects for at least some of them.
VodafoneThree’s mobile strategy seems to be quite defensive for now, save for a foray into the family market, and its approach to FWA looks likely to be quite cautious too.