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Telecoms and pay TV: Opportunities beyond lockdown

3 July 2020
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Premium sports subscriptions are the primary sector weakness in the current crisis, and they look set to drive fixed operator revenues down 10% next quarter and Sky’s EBITDA down by 60%.

As lockdown eases, latent broadband demand can be more easily sated, and sports subscriptions will bounce back from the September quarter. A surge in working-from-home is likely to increase both the quantity and quality of home broadband demand, with ‘failover’ mobile backup also likely to be of greater interest.

Openreach will benefit from accelerated demand for full fibre, converged operators will be best-placed to offer mobile backup for broadband, and operators with a strong corporate presence will most easily target demand for home-working products.

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No football, no growth: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2020

25 June 2020

Market revenue growth plummeted to -2% in Q1 2020, with a lack of premium sports pay TV revenue the biggest factor.

The lockdown is also reducing churn and firming up pricing, but it is unclear how long this will last post-lockdown.

Pay TV revenue trends will continue to dominate next quarter; thereafter the battleground will move to ultrafast.

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Trends shoring up: UK mobile market in Q1 2020

3 June 2020

The slow recovery in UK mobile continued this quarter with a 1ppt improvement in service revenue trends.

In spite of operator guidance to the negative, the sector is likely to remain relatively resilient in the face of COVID-19 in the short term, with its various impacts affecting operators differently depending on their business mix.

The outlook is relatively robust with the impact of some regulatory initiatives muted by lockdown measures and the annualization of some financial drags from the middle of next quarter.

 

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COVID-19 telecoms impact: Resilience in the short term, but maintaining may be challenging

27 March 2020

Demand for telecoms capacity is booming, and the networks can (broadly) cope, with the increase primarily in off-peak demand. However, as the crisis continues, maintaining resilience becomes more challenging.

In the short term, the demand for ample, reliable connectivity coupled with reduced churn will add resilience to operator financials, although there may be significant weak spots especially in business markets.

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  • No football, no growth: UK broadband, telephony and pay TV trends Q1 2020

    25 June 2020

    Market revenue growth plummeted to -2% in Q1 2020, with a lack of premium sports pay TV revenue the biggest factor.

    The lockdown is also reducing churn and firming up pricing, but it is unclear how long this will last post-lockdown.

    Pay TV revenue trends will continue to dominate next quarter; thereafter the battleground will move to ultrafast.

    Access report

  • Trends shoring up: UK mobile market in Q1 2020

    3 June 2020

    The slow recovery in UK mobile continued this quarter with a 1ppt improvement in service revenue trends.

    In spite of operator guidance to the negative, the sector is likely to remain relatively resilient in the face of COVID-19 in the short term, with its various impacts affecting operators differently depending on their business mix.

    The outlook is relatively robust with the impact of some regulatory initiatives muted by lockdown measures and the annualization of some financial drags from the middle of next quarter.

     

    Access report

  • COVID-19 telecoms impact: Resilience in the short term, but maintaining may be challenging

    27 March 2020

    Demand for telecoms capacity is booming, and the networks can (broadly) cope, with the increase primarily in off-peak demand. However, as the crisis continues, maintaining resilience becomes more challenging.

    In the short term, the demand for ample, reliable connectivity coupled with reduced churn will add resilience to operator financials, although there may be significant weak spots especially in business markets.

    However, as the crisis goes on, the pressure on capacity and network maintenance may grow, and the impact of the dramatic economic slowdown on consumers and businesses will also put pressure on financials.

    Access report