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TV NAR gloom lifting a shade

20 July 2010
Access report

Recent weeks have seen a marked improvement in the short-term outlook for TV NAR (Net Advertising Revenues), with total decline for 2009 reckoned to be in the order of -12.5% after a fourth quarter in which year-on-year decline is now expected to be in the order of -6%

The economic outlook for 2010 remains very uncertain due to the drastic cuts needed in the government’s spending to bring the deficit under control, which could lead to a double dip recession, and the persistence of downward pressures on airtime costs due to structural changes to the TV medium

We have accordingly revised our central case forecast year on year decline in TV NAR from -8% up to -4% in 2010, but it may not be until the London Olympics year of 2012 that we again witness positive growth

Recent reports

Bundesliga auction suspended: DAZN steps up ambitions

24 April 2024

The German football league has suspended its media rights auction after protests by DAZN over the award of the top package.

DAZN surprised the market by aiming to become the Bundesliga’s primary broadcaster.

The situation in Germany reveals the contradictory impulses weighing on leagues at rights auctions.

Access report

AI, press and licensing: Deals for the chosen few

22 April 2024

Big news publishers are pursuing licensing deals with AI companies, chiefly OpenAI. Not all publishers will see a substantial return; while some news may be important for training AI models, not all publisher content will be.

Litigation is a threat point when negotiations stall (see the New York Times), but the copyright status of Large Language Models (LLMs) is uncertain. In the UK, there has been no government intervention (on copyright or otherwise) that could facilitate licensing.

Publishers’ bargaining position is strongest when it comes to up-to-date material that could be important in powering some AI consumer products. They should seek deals to support their journalism, while bearing in mind the risk that new products may get between them and their readers.

Access report

Netflix Q1 2024: Revenues grow as reporting contracts

19 April 2024

Netflix's Q1 revenue was up 15% YoY (to $9.4 billion) bolstered by firm global subscriber growth and the continued momentum of 'paid sharing'. Operating margin is forecast to be 25% across this year (up from 21% in 2023)—approaching the realms of legacy linear media—but transparency will be diluted as the company stops reporting subscribers and ARPU

UK subscriptions and overall engagement are mostly flat; growth by older viewers is masking declines by the young

Even with the strikes driving viewing towards UK content, licensed programming remains a relatively minor factor in Netflix’s library

Access report