Vodafone: Guten Tag, turnaround
Vodafone’s financials have begun what should be a steady improvement as this year progresses, leaving behind the TV regulatory hit and benefiting from the onboarding of 1&1.
Looking beyond one-offs, the core operational metrics are mixed but skewed to the positive. Vodafone has some tricky balancing to enact to deliver a return to sustainable growth.
EBITDA growth was solid in this quarter and is likely to remain so in the medium term, thanks in particular to VodafoneThree. More evidence of fundamental commercial delivery would strengthen hope of an enduring positive trajectory.
Related reports
VodafoneThree launch: Astute, tentative steps
12 June 2025VodafoneThree's launch incorporates a number of swift and astute commercial decisions, which is particularly welcome given the challenging balancing act that the company needs to perform
The network upside will be felt quite quickly for Three customers primarily, with protection for Vodafone customers built in. Longer-term, the Government policy shift towards better coverage may require investment beyond the committed £11bn plan
We view some moves as helpful to prospects in the broadband market, others less so, and continue to have question marks about the attractiveness of this segment for VodafoneThree
Telecoms transformed: Vodafone3 merger impact
26 February 2025With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.
New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.
Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.
Vodafone: Turnaround prolonged
23 May 2025Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.
Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.
Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.
In a soft market for both consumer and B2B, service revenue trends continue to be dominated by in-contract price increase dynamics.
VodafoneThree’s launch signalled a cautious tone about prospects for mobile growth, presumably allowing for a degree of integration disruption.
VodafoneThree and VMO2 traded 79 MHz of usable spectrum, leaving VodafoneThree in a strong position spectrum-wise, albeit with some challenges given that its merger conditions reduce flexibility in its coverage approach.
VodafoneThree launch: Astute, tentative steps
12 June 2025VodafoneThree's launch incorporates a number of swift and astute commercial decisions, which is particularly welcome given the challenging balancing act that the company needs to perform
The network upside will be felt quite quickly for Three customers primarily, with protection for Vodafone customers built in. Longer-term, the Government policy shift towards better coverage may require investment beyond the committed £11bn plan
We view some moves as helpful to prospects in the broadband market, others less so, and continue to have question marks about the attractiveness of this segment for VodafoneThreeTelecoms transformed: Vodafone3 merger impact
26 February 2025With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.
New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.
Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.
Vodafone: Turnaround prolonged
23 May 2025Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.
Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.
Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.
In a soft market for both consumer and B2B, service revenue trends continue to be dominated by in-contract price increase dynamics.
VodafoneThree’s launch signalled a cautious tone about prospects for mobile growth, presumably allowing for a degree of integration disruption.
VodafoneThree and VMO2 traded 79 MHz of usable spectrum, leaving VodafoneThree in a strong position spectrum-wise, albeit with some challenges given that its merger conditions reduce flexibility in its coverage approach.