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Vodafone: Just in time delivery

30 July 2026
Access report

With Xavier Niel becoming Vodafone’s largest shareholder, the company will be pleased to be able to demonstrate a solid set of Q1 results.

EBITDA upside is coming from Rest of World and appears largely attributable to the consolidation of Safaricom, but is nonetheless reassuring of the prospect of hard-currency growth.

We continue to have reservations about Vodafone’s value over volume strategy, with the upside of price increases often short-lived, and loss of scale a difficult place to come back from.

Related reports

Telecoms transformed: Vodafone3 merger impact

26 February 2025

With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.

New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.

Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.

Access report

Fixed wireless access: Having its moment

24 February 2023

Providing home broadband connections via a mobile network (FWA) is gaining traction in certain markets where local conditions make it a viable alternative to fibre, such as New Zealand, Italy and the US.

FWA is a time-limited opportunity for most, with mobile traffic growth absorbing capacity for it and fixed traffic growth depleting the economic case. An ultimate shift to fibre is the best exit strategy.

In the UK, H3G's spare capacity could support up to 1 million FWA customers on a ten-year view—enough for a meaningful revenue fillip for H3G, but not enough to seriously disrupt the fixed market.

Access report

  • Telecoms transformed: Vodafone3 merger impact

    26 February 2025

    With the formation of Vodafone3, we envisage continued intense competition at the low end of the mobile market, a ramping up of pressure at the top end over time, and some opportunities in the short term.

    New information on spectrum trading confirms the view that BT/EE will be most capacity constrained, but with various strategic options available to it.

    Expected EBITDA growth of 9% p.a. at Vodafone3 would allow Vodafone Group to almost double its excess FCF. Budgeting for buying CK Hutchison’s stake, however, may curtail Vodafone’s spending over the coming years.

    Access report

  • Fixed wireless access: Having its moment

    24 February 2023

    Providing home broadband connections via a mobile network (FWA) is gaining traction in certain markets where local conditions make it a viable alternative to fibre, such as New Zealand, Italy and the US.

    FWA is a time-limited opportunity for most, with mobile traffic growth absorbing capacity for it and fixed traffic growth depleting the economic case. An ultimate shift to fibre is the best exit strategy.

    In the UK, H3G's spare capacity could support up to 1 million FWA customers on a ten-year view—enough for a meaningful revenue fillip for H3G, but not enough to seriously disrupt the fixed market.

    Access report