Vodafone/Liberty Global deal: Slim economics and regulatory risk

14 May 2018

Vodafone’s acquisition of Liberty's assets in Germany and Central Europe is likely to face regulatory scrutiny at the EU – and possibly also German – level. We view Vodafone’s expectation of closure in mid-2019 with no remedies as unlikely

The economics of the deal for Vodafone are slim, highly reliant on extracting sizeable synergies, and vulnerable to operational risk and potential remedies for regulatory approval, particularly in Germany

While we see some synergy benefit from combining two cable assets in Germany, we are unconvinced of meaningful benefits from combined fixed/mobile offerings

Recent reports

A greenish light: Vodafone/Three merger provisional findings

13 September 2024

The CMA's provisional findings on the Vodafone/Three merger reiterate its concerns around the impact on the retail and wholesale market but its previous issues regarding mobile towers sharing with BT/EE have been satisfied

Crucially, the CMA seems somewhat dismissive of structural remedies, although hasn't ruled them out entirely. Remedies sought in the form of network and pricing commitments seem somewhat unnecessary, but nonetheless workable

We now expect the Vodafone Three merger to gain approval in December, with remedy detail negotiated over the coming months—a very significant positive development for the sector

Access report

Prices up, revenues down: European mobile in Q2 2024

10 September 2024

Service revenue growth dropped off by 2.7ppts this quarter, and into negative territory, as operators in all markets suffered weaker growth

Operators in France and the UK implemented price increases this quarter but re-contracting absorbed any positive revenue impact. In Italy, regulatory intervention thwarted operator plans to raise prices

Increasing competitive intensity in France and Germany comes at a time when operators can ill-afford ARPU dilution and high churn

Access report

Women's sport in the press: Growth curve softening

9 September 2024

Women’s sport press news coverage during the 2024 Paris Olympics has softened after three years of record-breaking highs, though it remains up 3.8x on 2016 levels

Publications vary in their representation, with populars increasing article numbers faster, though qualities continue to devote more space to women. Success is a key generator of ‘newsworthy’ content

Coverage of women’s sport, despite falling article numbers, is larger and more prominent than before, and the threshold for inclusion continues to fall—signalling wider normalisation of women in sports pages

Access report