C&W Worldwide’s performance over the year to March was weak, with the most meaningful metrics showing positive but very low growth
The sharp decline in the mid-market business appears to be over, but price pressure and accelerating loss of ‘traditional’ voice revenue is preventing further progress
Guidance for the year to March 2012 is uninspiring. Beyond that, growing momentum in cloud services and the overseas businesses should generate more significant progress, but organic growth looks set to remain modest
Some of Ofcom’s proposed wholesale charge controls for Openreach fixed access services sound stringent
However, we estimate that the overall financial impact on BT and other players is likely to be very small
We do not expect the proposals to result in changes to many retail prices, but they should tilt the playing field slightly in favour of BT Retail’s competitors, particularly smaller providers of broadband and business services
C&W Worldwide’s performance over the six months to September was strong in terms of cash flow growth, although this was partly due to lower bad debt cost
Revenue decline is easing, but weakness in the mid-market business and reduced public sector spending are weighing on EBITDA
Looking ahead, this should improve somewhat, as the retail mid-market business recovers, but we expect growth in the core business to remain unexciting
C&W Worldwide’s first set of annual results since demerger were flattered by the inclusion of a full year of Thus
Nonetheless, management has continued to execute well despite difficult market conditions. Excellent cost control generated another year of strong underlying cash flow growth, albeit from a low base
Looking ahead there are grounds for continuing optimism, despite minimal guidance, although the rate of cash flow growth is set to drop, as cost reduction becomes progressively more challenging
The international business (CWI) has been hit by a sharp downturn in tourism, but performance at the UK-based business (Worldwide) remains on course, despite declining revenue
The initial announcement of an intention to demerge Worldwide from CWI will be followed by more details by the end of November
With little prospect of growth at International in the second half, and a successful turnaround phase at Worldwide beginning to draw to a natural conclusion, the demerger may not have the impact some had hoped
The UK and international businesses (now ‘Worldwide’ and ‘CWI’) are both continuing to perform well, despite weak revenue growth, thanks to strong cost control. Worldwide is now generating cash organically for the first time in memory
Performance at the newly-acquired Thus has been slightly below expectations, mostly due to increased customer churn. The sale of the ‘mid-market’ part of the business is a possibility
The market was disappointed by guidance for the new financial year. In our view it is both acceptable and achievable
The UK business (EAUS) is continuing to improve ahead of guidance as expected and its turnround can now be judged a success. Management has announced an aggressive plan to extract synergy from the recently acquired Thus
In our view the potential for synergies from an acquisition of Thus by C&W, though more limited than might be supposed, would still have a significant impact on the combined entity at the EBITDA level
International performance continued to be weak apart from Macau, although well within EBITDA guidance. Turnaround in Jamaica remains a significant challenge
International performance was hit by problems in Jamaica and was weak generally except for Panama and Macau