UK broadband subscriber growth continued to decline in Q4 2008 year-on-year. We expect declining growth throughout 2009, with the growth rate remaining positive, but in single figures
We expect VMed to use the upgrading of its 2 Mbit/s broadband base to 10 Mbit/s as the basis for a de facto price increase
The resulting increase in revenue could be substantial, although growth in subsequent years is likely to be reduced by lower gross additions
We continue to expect cash flow performance in 2009 to be resilient but unspectacular. However, the prospects for double digit growth in subsequent years to 2012 are beginning to look more promising
VMed’s Q4 results were mixed, with consumer cable revenue remaining stable but cable net adds dropping significantly and opex performance hit by rising energy costs
Group OCF was stable thanks to improvements at Virgin Mobile and Content
We expect performance to prove relatively resilient in 2009, though not to the extent of generating significant growth in underlying annual cash flow
Ending a simmering commercial dispute, Vivendi’s Canal+ has agreed to distribute its packages to France Télécom’s Orange TV satellite customers, allowing Orange to relaunch its DTH platform (targeting 4 million customers off the DSL TV footprint) after its dismal ‘do-it-alone’ first six months
Canal+ recruitments will benefit from the resumption of active marketing for its packages over Orange TV platforms, after a poor year for subscriber growth
Canal+ catch-up TV will now be available to all Orange Canal+ DSL TV subscribers, as it is to those on Free, where it is very popular, plus Orange satellite subscribers, thus giving Orange back the leadership position on IPTV in France
ITV has agreed to provide 7 day catch-up and archive content to Virgin Media’s TV customers. By closing the last major gap in its VOD offering, Virgin Media can better exploit VOD as a differentiator with Sky, thereby assisting customer retention
ITV also stands to gain from the circa £5-10 million per annum that it could receive for distribution of its catch-up content and the addition of 500 hours of top archive content to TV Choice, Virgin Media’s subscription VOD service. There appears no corresponding downside risk to ITV advertising revenues
The announcement highlights the future role of Kangaroo, the proposed BBC/ITV/Channel 4 joint venture, in supplying archive material to complete Virgin Media’s VOD line up, and the remedies the Competition Commission is considering to protect wholesale VOD customers
On Monday 15th December, Virgin Media (VMed) announced the launch of its 50 Mbit/s ‘XXL’ broadband service, implemented over the existing cable network using the DOCSIS3 standard. This note looks at the details of the offer and the implications for VMed, other ISPs and the residential telecoms market as a whole
UK broadband net additions in Q3 2008 fell sequentially, the first time this has happened in a third quarter. Q3 net adds almost halved year-on-year to 320,000
Virgin Media’s Q3 results represent a significant step in the recovery of the business, with ARPU and consumer cable revenue stable for the first time in 18 months. Group OCF growth was hit by one-off opex reductions in the prior quarter but continues to grow on an underlying basis
Just three players now account for most French broadband connections: Orange’s DSL market share is closing on 50%, Iliad’s rose to 25% from consolidation with Alice, while SFR’s dropped to 23.7%, with Neuf’s rebrand imminent. Cable remains a minimal presence on broadband
VMed’s Q2 results represent a further step in the recovery of the business, with fixed line churn continuing to fall and operating cash flow (OCF) continuing to grow, helped by a dramatic improvement in OCF at Virgin Mobile