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Having acquired national broadcast TV rights for premium content, France Télécom’s Orange TV will launch on satellite on 3rd July and introduce subscription football and film and series services from August, in a first for a major European telecoms incumbent

Canal+ is entering a critical phase of growth following the recent merger with its former rival Télévision Par Satellite (TPS). Vivendi has set short term guidance targets for 2010 of 11.5 million subscriptions, turnover above €5 billion and more than doubling of EBITA from €490 million to over €1 billion. This presentation examines these targets and concludes that Canal+ will fall short of all them. In the best case baseline scenario of least competition from other pay-TV and free-to-air (FTA) services, it projects EBITA in 2010 of just €890 million

Telecoms subscriber growth has improved sharply but this has been achieved at the expense of ARPU growth; revenue continues to decline

Apparent weaknesses in its Q3 2007 results notwithstanding, Premiere has a good chance of meeting its FY 2007 guidance targets of €1 billion in revenues and €80-100 million in EBITDA after recovering marketing rights to live televised domestic football

Uncertainties over football rights from September 2009 remain and doubts persist about long-term growth in a market where 95% of homes receive 30+ free-to-air (FTA) domestic TV channels. Even with News Corporation’s extra know-how, climbing from 3.53 million (end of Q3 2007) to 4 million direct subscribers will take some push, while 5 million looks a distant dream

Further consolidation could lie ahead for the UK commercial radio sector. EMAP is expected to offer its radio assets for sale and Scottish Media Group plans to divest Virgin Radio. The battleground is competition for listeners drawn by the BBC's increasingly popular national radio networks. This report however examines past consolidation, which produced substantial cost savings, without noticeably improving the commercial sector's fortunes. In our view, for consolidation to succeed in this regard, much greater attention will need to be paid to improving content