UK broadband subscriber growth continued to decline in Q4 2008 year-on-year. We expect declining growth throughout 2009, with the growth rate remaining positive, but in single figures
We expect VMed to use the upgrading of its 2 Mbit/s broadband base to 10 Mbit/s as the basis for a de facto price increase
The resulting increase in revenue could be substantial, although growth in subsequent years is likely to be reduced by lower gross additions
We continue to expect cash flow performance in 2009 to be resilient but unspectacular. However, the prospects for double digit growth in subsequent years to 2012 are beginning to look more promising
Ofcom’s statement on Next Generation Access (NGA) gives BT the maximum possible incentive to invest by allowing a high degree of pricing freedom and some short cuts to reduce implementation costs
But Ofcom cannot guarantee that BT will make a return from NGA, only the existence of an opportunity to make one
Ofcom’s statement is certainly positive for BT, but we remain sceptical of the business case for BT NGA, particularly given the low price of all-copper based offers and Virgin Media’s roll-out of 50 Mbit/s broadband
VMed’s Q4 results were mixed, with consumer cable revenue remaining stable but cable net adds dropping significantly and opex performance hit by rising energy costs
Group OCF was stable thanks to improvements at Virgin Mobile and Content
We expect performance to prove relatively resilient in 2009, though not to the extent of generating significant growth in underlying annual cash flow
Ofcom has come up with a new 900MHz spectrum refarming/redistribution proposal, in which only 5MHz of spectrum is taken from Vodafone and O2, as opposed to the 15MHz it previously proposed
We still think that disrupting the voice and text services of existing customers in order to extend the availability of little-used 3G data services makes little sense, and that rearranging a small amount of intensively used spectrum when a far larger amount of unused spectrum is about to become available makes even less sense
Should Vodafone and O2 continue to oppose having their spectrum taken away, as appears likely, the delays to new spectrum auctions are likely to continue
ITV has agreed to provide 7 day catch-up and archive content to Virgin Media’s TV customers. By closing the last major gap in its VOD offering, Virgin Media can better exploit VOD as a differentiator with Sky, thereby assisting customer retention
ITV also stands to gain from the circa £5-10 million per annum that it could receive for distribution of its catch-up content and the addition of 500 hours of top archive content to TV Choice, Virgin Media’s subscription VOD service. There appears no corresponding downside risk to ITV advertising revenues
The announcement highlights the future role of Kangaroo, the proposed BBC/ITV/Channel 4 joint venture, in supplying archive material to complete Virgin Media’s VOD line up, and the remedies the Competition Commission is considering to protect wholesale VOD customers