TikTok has been dealt a devastating blow as a US bill has been signed into law forcing owner ByteDance to sell within a year or face its removal from app stores.
The stakes are higher than in 2020—China's opposition to a divestment will make an optimal sale harder to conclude, so all sides must be prepared for a ban.
The TikTok bill introduces extraordinary new powers in the context of the US and China's broad systemic rivalry, though online consumer benefits will be limited.
As viewing moves online, broadcasters’ on-demand players make up a growing proportion of viewing, becoming central to their future strategies.
However, even though SVOD viewing might have begun to plateau, BVOD growth cannot yet balance the decline of linear broadcast.
Of this shrinking pie, 2023 saw most of the major broadcast players increase their viewing shares.
Reports of the "death of the metaverse" are greatly exaggerated. The scope of investment across metaverse-friendly technologies and experiences remains robust, although aggressive global competition in the AI sector could cause speed bumps.
VR, XR, and spatial computing will see a renaissance in 2024, renewing interest from developers as well as major media and entertainment. Gaming continues to be a major driver of the metaverse, with clear opportunity for new major services to compete against Fortnite and Roblox.
The building blocks are therefore all in place for the next consumer growth phase. Scaling the metaverse will be dependent on consistent and sustained trials, and more engagement from media and entertainment beyond games.
Prepared for The Metaverse Society by Enders Analysis.
Meta's China risk is overstated: the spend from Chinese advertisers is diverse and resilient to everything short of a full-blown trade war.
Apple (and Tesla) are in the more precarious position of selling directly in-market, and face sharpening domestic competition.
Amazon's exit from selling in China still leaves it exposed: its marketplace strategy is built on Chinese sellers, whose potential routes to market are proliferating with local platforms going global.
Sony PlayStation’s next CEO will have hard decisions to make: compete against a resurgent multiplatform Microsoft, or retreat and defend an increasingly rickety PlayStation console model.
New gaming hardware will have an outsize influence in the year ahead, giving gamers unprecedented choice, starting with XR headsets and continuing to a likely new Nintendo Switch.
YouTube’s foray into browser-based games will be the service to watch in 2024. If successful, streaming services, including Netflix, will be on track to become heavyweight game platforms.
As more viewing is delivered on-demand and online, the jeopardy and immediacy of sport make it one of the few genres which will remain overwhelmingly live.
Shared national experiences that allow as wide an audience as possible to follow simultaneously are increasingly rare in a fragmented media landscape, and public service broadcasters are still the only media capable of providing them.
The listed events regime should not just be protected but at least extended to include live digital rights: although the vast majority can presently access these events via DTT, changing viewing habits, eventual DTT switch-off and a shift in how rights are packaged means that action should be taken now to guarantee continual full, free availability.
Sports orgs are looking for ways to engage their total, global fanbase, leading them to explore virtual interactive sports experiences.
Sport is well-placed to overcome many of the obstacles in the way of the metaverse. In particular, many of the asset development and experience design issues are much closer to being solved than in other verticals.
There are different routes to a true sports metaverse, with the most promising being expanding existing sports simulation games. Crypto, NFTs, and social gaming platforms are largely distractions.
Online advertising growth at big tech firms has flatlined, with real-term declines at Meta and YouTube. The weakness is concentrated in higher funnel ads.
Advertising is a leading indicator. A hardware slowdown is coming, services growth is stuttering, and businesses will want to save on cloud services.
Investors are hostile to attempts to spend through a downturn, but competition from TikTok and developments in AI demand targeted investment, while Meta is pot-committed to the metaverse. Tech giants are looking for savings elsewhere.
Advertisers are rushing to create immersive virtual experiences to promote their brands, particularly on social gaming platforms with large built-in audiences. The interest shows no sign of waning.
We are in the very early days of metaverse marketing: formats are bespoke, costs are high and the data provided by platforms is rudimentary. Not all product categories are suited to a virtual incarnation.
The long-term promise is tantalising: advertising that is better than its real-world counterpart, that forges new relationships with customers, and that forms part of the product offering rather than just promotional activity.
For the media and entertainment industry the dawn of the metaverse, and the word soup of acronyms that accompanies it, is the latest high-profile technology wave that threatens to simultaneously upend established distribution models and reinvent both the experience and relationship with the audience.
Many companies will feel they have been here before. The last 25 years have seen technologies move from linear to on-demand and physical to digital; and devices from fixed, heavy boxes, to always connected and mobile-first. Some companies never recovered from these changes.
The next 24 months is a particularly useful window to invest at small scale and with limited downside risk. With audiences small but influential, there is opportunity to start early, develop robust test cases and establish new community-building and storytelling formats.