In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to June 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers. This quarter’s edition includes a first look at high speed broadband subscriber volumes, and our analysis of broadband growth in 2010 based on data recently released by Ofcom.

Highlights for the year 2010 include confirmation of our earlier estimate of a sharp increase in residential subscriber growth, and, despite this, the first ever decline in revenue from residential broadband, due to aggressive pricing of broadband/telephony bundles.

Highlights for the 2011 June quarter include broadband subscribers breaching the 20 million mark, a further decline in broadband market growth, continuing strong broadband subscriber growth at BSkyB and BT Retail, the first ever quarterly declines in cable broadband subscribers and LLU lines, and the first increase in BT Wholesale broadband net additions for four and a half years.

VMed’s Q2 results were respectable, but quirky, with resilient underlying revenue and strong cash flow, but exceptionally weak cable volumes

Virgin Mobile is performing better than ever, but steam continues to seep from the cable cash flow boiler

A TiVo push and further progress at Virgin Media Business are still to come, but we expect a trend of gradual decline in fundamental cash flow growth

BT’s plans to deploy next generation access, combined with state-aided rural broadband projects, look set to give almost three quarters of UK households access to high speed broadband by 2016

New wireless technology is a feasible substitute for wireline for some low-end users and in specific areas, but we do not expect it to have a major impact on high speed broadband deployment

BT Retail and Virgin Media will in effect move significant numbers of their customers onto high speed broadband, but without significant price reductions we believe that, even by 2016, consumers’ reluctance to pay more will result in two-thirds of households remaining on lower speed options

This report provides our annual assessment and forecasts for recorded music sales and music publishing revenues, which engage all four of the ‘majors’ – Universal Music Group (UMG), EMI, Sony and Warner Music Group (WMG). In the context of the ongoing physical-to-digital transition of music consumption, retailing and buying, documented in the report, we estimate a 10% decline in recorded music sales to $18.4 billion in 2010, the sixth consecutive year of decline. We also project further overall declines in our forecast period to 2015. The recorded music sales decline has fed into music publisher revenues via mechanicals, and will continue to do so. In addition, the recession of 2008-09 continues to feed through to music publisher revenues via the lagged distribution of royalties. Thus, for 2010, we estimate that the global total fell by 3.1% in 2010 to $5.6 billion, and project an overall return to modest growth in 2012. Together, our analysis of recorded music and music publishing provides an industry-level context to evaluate the likely development of the majors themselves, bearing in mind that shifts in market share and currency movements will continue to differentiate their relative performances.

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to March 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers. This quarter’s edition includes an updated outlook for broadband market subscribers and market shares to 2015.

Highlights in the quarter included broadband market growth moving back into line with consumer confidence, continuing strong broadband subscriber growth at both BT Retail and Sky, greater stability in the proportion of the market served by BT Wholesale and a significant price increase at O2. We project that, by the end of 2015, about 21 million households will subscribe to fixed broadband, and that Sky’s market share will exceed that of TalkTalk Group to rival that of Virgin Media.

Internet advertising grew 15% YoY to €17.7 billion across Western and Central & Eastern Europe in 2010, according to provisional figures from IAB Europe

As in the US, growth in display, increasingly powered by social media, outpaced that of search, with display accounting for 33% of spend (up 3 ppts YoY)

We have updated our forecasts for 5 key markets – UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain – and now project aggregated growth of 10% in 2011 and 13% in 2012

The most dramatic observation from our survey is the surge in mobile data service usage: 48% of UK mobile users now use a data service at least once a month, up from just 30% last year. This increase is substantially all from the increased number of internet-centric smartphones (i.e. iPhone, BlackBerry and Android handsets) in the base

The internet-centric smartphones themselves had substantially no reduction in data usage penetration rates (all at 90%+) despite their volumes surging, with users from all age and socio-economic groups using them for data services. Data service usage penetration on a daily basis actually increased for Android and BlackBerry handsets

This supports our view that it is the nature of these handsets in terms of their ease-of-use for data services that is driving overall usage, and that overall data usage will continue to surge as they continue to diffuse through the subscriber base

C&W Worldwide’s performance over the year to March was weak, with the most meaningful metrics showing positive but very low growth

The sharp decline in the mid-market business appears to be over, but price pressure and accelerating loss of ‘traditional’ voice revenue is preventing further progress

Guidance for the year to March 2012 is uninspiring. Beyond that, growing momentum in cloud services and the overseas businesses should generate more significant progress, but organic growth looks set to remain modest

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete.