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Analysis of comScore data suggests that ad volumes fell in April on Facebook’s PC-based website in the US and UK, which we estimate account for 60% of ad revenue Seasonal effects may account for some of the decline, but increasing pressure on ad performance and pricing, due to the tough economic climate, and slowing growth in PC usage of Facebook are other probable factors As a result we expect Facebook’s ad revenue growth slowdown to continue in Q2, with audience saturation in key internet markets and increasing mobile substitution limiting future growth potential from display advertising

VMed’s underlying financial performance in Q1 was hit by continuing high capex on customer equipment for TiVo and high speed broadband, and on marketing opex to retain customers Strong take-up of next generation TV, lower cable churn and continuing progress at the Mobile and Business divisions continue to give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working Despite early indications that most cable customers will accept the latest round of price increases, the outlook for underlying cash flow growth in 2012 appears limited

The London Olympics promise to be a major success for both the free-to-air broadcast licensees and the leading pay-TV platforms as a result of co-operative deals being forged between them

Recent distribution agreements with Sky provide the BBC and Eurosport with a massively bigger window to showcase their credentials in in-depth sports coverage and new technologies, especially 3D

For Sky, and assuming VMed in due course, there exist a number of potential indirect commercial benefits, as the message is sent out loud and clear that there is no better place to go for London Olympics free-to-air coverage than the pay-TV platforms

According to IABUK/PwC, internet advertising grew 14.4% like-for-like in 2011 to £4.8 billion, overtaking press to become the single largest advertising medium

Search was again the main growth driver, surging 17.5% to £2.7 billion last year, while display rose 13.4% and classifieds increased just 5.2% on the weak economy

We now forecast internet advertising will increase 14% in 2012 and 12% in 2013, taking spend to £6.1 billion or 36% of UK advertising, up from 30% in 2011

In this first of two reports on TV platform growth, we consider the impact of digital convergence on the traditional broadcast channel distribution platforms. As the analogue era draws to a close, the new era of digital convergence across multiple screens and devices is gathering momentum. We assess the various forces of change, including superfast broadband rollout, the continuing growth of pay-TV adoption and the strategic resilience of Sky and Virgin Media. We provide our forecasts for TV platform penetration to 2020.

UK mobile advertising jumped 157% year-on-year to £203 million in 2011, marginally higher than our forecast of £180 million, with strong growth in both search and display

Mobile advertising now accounts for 6% of internet search and display spend, but still lags mobile devices’ share of internet consumption, which has been rising strongly due to rapid smartphone and tablet adoption, and we estimate is now at around 15%

We expect much of the lag between mobile’s share of internet consumption and ad spend to disappear over the next five years, indicating continued high growth

Google+, the social network, has around 100 million users worldwide, although user growth appears to have stalled and usage is low on weak network effects

Facebook users, now 70% of the adult internet audience (excluding China), have no incentive to switch to Google+, starving the social network of vital momentum

Facebook is likely to dominate socially enhanced search, unless Google+ takes off, which seems unlikely

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.

Mobile operators, services and handset makers are diverging – they all come to the MWC but have increasingly little to say to each other as their businesses move in very different directions

In the context of -5% European mobile revenue growth, the MNOs at the MWC were a sober bunch, focusing on industrial services, defensive moves around messaging, and a (not unreasonable) plea to regulators for some relief

As competition in Android intensifies between hundreds of black plastic rectangles, the picture for OEMs looks tough but Google’s failure to make Android work well for developers may also start to bite, leaving an opening for Nokia and Windows Phone

TiVo in demand

TiVo is central to Virgin Media’s strategy for building value in its cable platform, offering next generation applications and software search, recommendations and navigation instruments

The challenge of deploying TiVo across the entire VMed base within five years for a monthly charge of £5 (as of April 2012) is considerable, but promises several other financial benefits besides subscription income

VMed appears uniquely well placed among UK platform operators to develop innovative solutions, while early evidence suggesting that TiVo is affecting viewing habits significantly encourages belief that the ambitious management target can be achieved