In this first of two reports on TV platform growth, we consider the impact of digital convergence on the traditional broadcast channel distribution platforms. As the analogue era draws to a close, the new era of digital convergence across multiple screens and devices is gathering momentum. We assess the various forces of change, including superfast broadband rollout, the continuing growth of pay-TV adoption and the strategic resilience of Sky and Virgin Media. We provide our forecasts for TV platform penetration to 2020.

Google+, the social network, has around 100 million users worldwide, although user growth appears to have stalled and usage is low on weak network effects

Facebook users, now 70% of the adult internet audience (excluding China), have no incentive to switch to Google+, starving the social network of vital momentum

Facebook is likely to dominate socially enhanced search, unless Google+ takes off, which seems unlikely

In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.

TiVo is central to Virgin Media’s strategy for building value in its cable platform, offering next generation applications and software search, recommendations and navigation instruments

The challenge of deploying TiVo across the entire VMed base within five years for a monthly charge of £5 (as of April 2012) is considerable, but promises several other financial benefits besides subscription income

VMed appears uniquely well placed among UK platform operators to develop innovative solutions, while early evidence suggesting that TiVo is affecting viewing habits significantly encourages belief that the ambitious management target can be achieved

Three drivers are increasing UK internet consumption: a growing number of older PC internet users; digital natives, especially younger people with high incomes, spending more time online; and rising adoption of the mobile internet

Despite rapid mobile user growth, internet usage remains a PC-centric experience as time spent on mobile is constrained by screen size, ‘on the go’ use and data pricing. These factors are less likely to inhibit tablet use

Everyone uses the internet as a retail, communications and information service and traffic is growing as older users come online. But under-35s are increasingly using the internet as an entertainment destination as well, sharing video content on social networks and driving a huge increase in time spent on YouTube

In this presentation we show our analysis of trends in UK broadband and telephony to December 2011, based on the published results of the major service providers.

Highlights for the December quarter include a return to the lower rate of broadband market growth seen prior to mid-2010, accelerating growth in the number of subscribers to high speed broadband and the continuing increase in market share of BT Retail and BSkyB at the expense of virtually all other players

This quarter’s edition includes a look at Openreach’s wholesale FTTP On Demand, planned for launch in 2013.

Following announcements by Virgin Media to double the speeds used by most cable customers, and by BSkyB to launch high speed broadband offer in April based on Openreach’s wholesale VDSL product, by 2016 we now expect about half of UK residential broadband subscribers to be on high speed broadband, i.e. xDSL or GPON at 30 Mbit/s plus, and DOCSIS at 20 Mbit/s plus

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 19 January 2012. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette. An edited transcript of notes taken during the speaker presentations follows.

The speakers were Sir Martin Sorrell (CEO, WPP), Glen Moreno (Chairman, Pearson), Martin Morgan (CEO, DMGT), David Levin (CEO, UBM), Dan Cobley (MD, Google UK & Ireland), Mike Pocock (CEO, Yell), Vittorio Colao (CEO, Vodafone), Charles Dunstone (Chairman, Carphone Warehouse, TalkTalk Group), Stephen Carter (President, Alcatel-Lucent EMEA), the Rt. Hon. Jeremy Hunt MP (Secretary of State for Culture, Olympics, Media and Sport), Neil Berkett (CEO, Virgin Media), Liv Garfield (CEO, Openreach) and Ed Richards (CEO, Ofcom).

Facebook’s IPO prospectus confirms that the social network is an internet colossus, with 845 million users worldwide and $3.7 billion in revenue in 2011

Growth potential in display advertising, which accounts for the majority of revenue, seems limited with increasing mobile substitution in major ad markets and future user expansion largely in lower yielding countries

There is significant potential to increase income from payments and other businesses beyond social games, but the company’s strategy is unknown at this point

VMed’s Q4 results were again mixed, with underlying cash flow growth hit by high capital expenditure primarily relating to accelerating TiVo box installations

But this strong take up of next generation TV, and real progress at the Mobile and Business divisions, give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working

Management guidance of further cash flow growth from the second half of 2012 is credible, though we continue to expect underlying growth to be limited

Google’s UK revenue grew 23% to £676 million in Q4 2011, taking 2011 revenue to £2,525 million, up 20% year-on-year, 2 ppts below our November estimate

Globally, gross revenue rose 25% year-on-year, with mobile and display performing strongly, but rising costs pulled net revenue growth down to 8%

Our growth forecasts for Google’s UK revenue remain unchanged; we expect UK internet ad spend to rise from £4.7 billion last year to £5.8 billion by 2013, representing 35% of total advertising, as print continues to fall