The UK’s ‘zombie’ economy—largely flat since March 2022—is due to the cost-of-living crisis weighing on households, with this exacerbated in 2023 by the rising cost of credit. Real private expenditure growth will be weakly positive in 2024 before strengthening in 2025 as headwinds recede

Our 2023 forecast of a nominal rise but real decline in display advertising was realised, with TV’s revenues falling while digital display rose. Advertiser spend online is justified by the channel’s size and growth, worth an estimated £406 billion in 2023

For 2024, much lower inflation and mildly positive real private expenditure growth points to 3-4% display advertising growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025

A regulatory intervention on public interest grounds now stands in the way of RedBird IMI owning the Telegraph and Spectator after the Barclay family settled the loan with Lloyds Banking Group (LBG), thus ending the auction of the titles.

RedBird IMI CEO Jeff Zucker anticipated concerns on public interest grounds in the UK and sketched out possible undertakings to mitigate them.

Ofcom has experience with advising on the public interest in newspaper mergers, but not with tussling with opponents on the foreign ownership of news titles.

RedBird IMI is pitching for the Telegraph and Spectator by lending the money to the Barclay family to settle all of its debt to Lloyds Banking Group (LBG), suspending the auction of the media assets by Goldman Sachs and upsetting the bidders

Strong political headwinds to RedBird IMI did not take long to emerge in the UK, with the Secretary of State for DCMS, Lucy Frazer, “minded to” issue a Public Interest Intervention Notice (PIIN), as early as this week

Jeff Zucker, CEO of RedBird IMI, is in London this week to promote the deal and respond to concerns over the public interest by making assurances to the UK authorities

News UK and the Mail propose to set up a joint venture, pooling most of the infrastructure and capacity of their printing operations

The proposed JV is subject to competition scrutiny, with two print sites—Thurrock and Dinnington (both DMG Media)—identified for potential closure                          

Opportunities for digital collaboration should be higher up publisher agendas more generally, as the opportunities and threats of the next digital phase evolve

The sale of each of the parent companies of The Telegraph and Spectator Groups is close to kick-off, with several buyers already expressing a firm interest. 

Newspaper mergers are likely to be subject to both a competition and public interest process, representing a hurdle for potential buyers.

Only a trade buyer would be tested for a potential substantial lessening of competition and for a potential reduction in media plurality, a higher bar than for non-trade buyers. 

Women's football coverage increased in quality during the FIFA Women's World Cup, with greater presence in sports sections and main news sections, despite a mild decline in the overall quantity of women's sport coverage

Press advertising opportunities are beginning to be capitalised on by sponsors and brands, particularly in print, with online lagging. This will need to be addressed to harness ongoing online growth

Editorial continues to play a significant role in the promotion of women's sport. Coverage levels are inevitably skewed upward by success, but also by slower turnover online, doing women's sport a disservice and hampering growth

The sale of the Telegraph Media Group (TMG) gets a boost from its 2022 Trading Statement, including steadily rising profits, and visibility for 2023 subscriptions

TMG has built out its digital reader revenues, rapidly closing on one million subscriptions—setting the business on a more sustainable path

The sale of TMG and The Spectator will reach its highest valuation if appetite to own these assets sharpens and widens the range of buyers that will bid

National paid-for newspaper circulation has dipped below three million, raising thorny questions for publishers—and for distributors and retailers

News publishers can sustain print revenues to a degree by cover price increases, and also support profitability through greater efficiency in printing operations

Sustainability challenges for Smiths News and Menzies Distribution could give rise to innovative solutions, such as direct-to-retailer distribution by printer-publishers

Unprecedented growth in women’s sport is generating opportunities for publishers and advertisers. This year’s FIFA Women’s World Cup provides a chance to capitalise on the elevated coverage and interest

Women’s sport coverage must forge its own identity in the long term. News publishers play an enormous role by nourishing interest and discourse, creating brand opportunities and raising the profile of women’s sport

Articles currently must clear a higher bar for inclusion, though this will shift in the near term as coverage continues growing: variations in the type, style, and quantity of coverage highlight the progress made so far and identify areas of ongoing improvement

Advertising activity has shifted dramatically from brand-building to activation in the past few years. Advertisers should resist the pressure to spend even more on activation: those that rebalance to brand building can gain a long-term competitive advantage.

Brand advertising works by building up memories and associations, supporting market share and pricing. This is done best by television, print, audio and out-of-home, but in a rapidly fragmenting media landscape online video and display can no longer just be a supporting act.

Investing in proper cross-channel audience measurement and planning will allow advertisers to use brand advertising effectively across all media, as well as supporting broadcaster and publisher ad revenue.