On 4 June 2024, Enders Analysis co-hosted the annual Media and Telecoms 2024 & Beyond Conference with Deloitte, sponsored by Barclays, Salesforce, the Financial Times, and Adobe

With over 580 attendees and over 40 speakers from the TMT sector, including leading executives and industry experts, the conference focused on how new technologies, regulation and infrastructure will impact the future of the industry

This is the edited transcript of Session One, covering: the evolution of streaming models, and public service broadcasting in the digital age. Videos of the presentations will be available on the conference website

TikTok has been dealt a devastating blow as a US bill has been signed into law forcing owner ByteDance to sell within a year or face its removal from app stores. 

The stakes are higher than in 2020—China's opposition to a divestment will make an optimal sale harder to conclude, so all sides must be prepared for a ban.   

The TikTok bill introduces extraordinary new powers in the context of the US and China's broad systemic rivalry, though online consumer benefits will be limited.  

Football leagues must think innovatively about maintaining broad exposure, but relying on advertising revenues from free-to-air TV makes no economic sense.

Creating league-operated direct-to-consumer platforms would undermine the very competition between broadcasters that has propelled rights.

The only realistic option for sustainable growth is deeper, longer-term partnerships with broadcasters.

Streaming profitability beckons, but owes much to the profitable services folded into companies’ DTC segments alongside the headline streamers.

There is a broader move towards bundling and price rises. The former bolsters subscriber additions and lifetime value but is ARPU-dilutive, while price rises will bump up both ARPU and churn.

2024 marks the first year with multiple players at scale in the ad space, as Prime Video entered the market. Other streamers with high CPMs and lower scale may be forced to re-examine their offerings.

Public service broadcasters are in a position to plan for the long term with commercial licences renewed for ten years, an updated prominence regime via the Media Bill and a government broadly supportive of the BBC.

With the Premier League and EFL rights secure to the end of the decade, Sky can plan for the future from a position of strength.

Relationships between Sky and the PSBs have improved markedly recently, and as all can now plan for the long-term, this should provide further opportunities to cement relationships for the benefit of the broadcasting ecosystem and viewers.

Vodafone has struck a deal to sell its ailing Spanish business in a deal worth €5bn, equivalent to 5.3x EBITDAaL.

While the pragmatism of the move will be applauded, the valuation may be viewed as disappointing by some.

The deal removes an enduring drag on the company’s financials, providing scope for better European trends, but this is one of several challenges facing the company, with the dividend policy question now to the fore.

DAZN and Sky have renewed their current coverage of Serie A until 2029, at a slightly lower price and with the security of a five-year contract. The ‘league channel’ DTC option was rejected by clubs.

With bids expected soon in France and the UK, DAZN seems determined to become the dominant football broadcaster in Europe.

The Italian auction outcome confirms the real-term erosion of the value of football rights across Europe, but also a more mature approach from the league.

The metaverse is a radical expansion of online experiences— sparking a host of new safety challenges on harmful content, economic activity, and privacy.

Building safety into the metaverse will take a village: platforms and communities will set policies and moderation. Regulators could struggle to future-proof their tools, especially with decentralised platforms.

AI age verification and moderation is in a race against AI hazards: disinformation, deepfakes and dynamic user content all intensify harms in immersive settings.

A cooler consumer market sees Sky now facing the same pressures as its SVOD competitors, with a loss of pay-TV subscribers in the UK.

However, Sky is performing better in telecoms in both the UK and Italy. These markets are less susceptible to recession with Sky also benefitting from its position as more of a challenger than an incumbent.

Uncertainty continues to loom over both the sale of its German platform and the upcoming allocation of Serie A rights in Italy.

Service revenue growth almost doubled this quarter to 2.4% aided by price rises in the UK, Spain, and France, but remains well below inflation-levels.

The revenue boost from in-contract price rises will ultimately disappear as customers recontract, dampening the EBITDA outlook as costs continue to rise.

Operators are looking to other strategies to strengthen their positions, including edging up new-customer pricing, M&A, and attracting wholesale MVNO business.