In this presentation we show our analysis of revenue growth trends for mobile operators in the top five European markets (UK, Germany, France, Italy and Spain). The historical analysis is based on the published results of the operators, although they include our estimates where their data is inconsistent or not complete. A copy of the underlying data in spreadsheet format is available to our subscription clients on request.

In this report we show our analysis of the performance, key trends, competitive dynamics and factors impacting the UK broadband, telephony and pay-TV markets

The first part of the report focusses on market level performance and KPIs such as volume and revenue growth, net adds, pricing and ARPU, and market shares as well as our analysis of key developments in high speed broadband and pay-TV offerings

The second covers the individual results of the four largest ISPs (BT, Virgin Media, BSkyB and TalkTalk Group) in the context of the wider market developments

Though likely to be appealed, the CAT’s dismissal of the Ofcom WMO remedy seems certain to cut off any further re-regulation of pay-TV in the next two years

The CAT decision hands Sky pricing power in the wholesale of its premium sports content, while forcing other retailers to switch their focus on to attempts to enter into commercial supply agreements with Sky

Financially Sky has potentially most to gain and VMed most to lose from the CAT decision, while BT’s strategy to expand its content offer is highly challenged

H3G’s European operations accelerated their underlying service revenue growth to 7.8% in H1 2012, and EBIT margin improved slightly from 3% to 4%, but the growth appeared to be significantly helped by aggressive handset subsidies in Italy, with the company’s unconventional accounting policy disguising the impact on EBIT The UK business continued to perform very well, with contract net additions strong again helped by falling churn, and service revenue growth accelerating from 13% to 14%. H2 will be tougher with more pressure on churn, but we still expect growth to exceed 10% The Italian business significantly slowed its revenue decline, from -14% to -4%, but it appeared to do this through very aggressive contract SACs, and the effects of this on EBIT are likely to be felt over the coming year

Sky generated 14% growth in operating profits in FY 2012 in spite of a comparative 53 week reporting year in 2012, the price freeze induced by a tough economic climate and large incremental investment in programming

The increase was much as we expected with predictable strong growth in home communications, wash-through of TV and HD subscriptions, low churn and most notably improved operating efficiencies

The medium term outlook for operating profit growth in the existing business remains very promising, with further potential upside following the launch of NOW TV and the acquisition of Parthenon

Sky has launched NOW TV, an unbundled internet video service offering non-Sky households pay-as-you-go access to select Sky content, starting with movies, with sports added later in the autumn and TV shows to follow NOW TV addresses the growing opportunity for broadband TV, primarily appealing to the 8 million non-pay-TV households that have broadband – the same target audience as Netflix, LoveFilm, BT Vision and YouView We expect NOW TV to have only incremental impact on Sky’s financials, but it has the potential to put Sky in pole position in the nascent market for over-the-top TV

YouView, the hybrid DTT/IPTV service backed by the public service broadcasters, is here, but with an initial retail box price of £300 it will be heavily dependent on the subsidies offered by ISP distributors BT and TalkTalk The TV market has evolved since YouView’s conception in 2008, with many other internet-enabled options now available; its managed and integrated approach gives it some advantages but doesn’t make it a ‘must have’ We expect YouView to mainly appeal to Freeview and BT Vision upgraders and project take-up between 1-3 million TV homes by 2015, though if the product improves and pricing falls dramatically it could see faster growth

News Corp will split publishing out of its business by creating a company to include newspapers in the US, UK and Australia as well as book publisher HarperCollins News Corp revenue growth has for some time been driven by explosive growth in cable network programming revenues, with slower revenue growth in film, TV, satellite TV and publishing The structural decline of print-based businesses is the main reason cited for the split. However, the Dow Jones and WSJ, both serving a B2B market, will be at the heart of the new publishing company’s value

In this report we show the findings of our 2012 UK mobile user survey. The report is a wide ranging analysis of the mobile market based on our consumer research, focusing on the competitive landscape among the mobile operators and smartphone manufacturers, and the changing consumer behaviour that has and will continue to impact the market

Unforeseen record inflation in live televised Premier League rights for the three-year contract due to commence in August 2012 marked the entry of a major competitor to Sky in the market for the most premium of premium content. BT will need to rely on a co-operative deal with Sky and probably also VMed to meet its financial guidance targets, but its entry into premium content aggregation also raises the competitive stakes. BT’s entry must be seen as a long-term strategic play that is unlikely to deliver viability during the next three-year contract, but places it in a stronger position to handle the challenges of a digitally converged world