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Carphone Warehouse’s distribution business felt the recessionary chill for the first time in the December quarter, but its like-for-like organic growth of -1% was still far better than other consumer electronics retailers have fared

The market outlook is unfortunately still worsening. While we still expect Carphone Warehouse to outperform its competitors, its results are likely to get worse before they get better

In fixed line, net broadband additions were reasonable at TalkTalk but negative again at AOL. We are sceptical of the prospects for subscriber growth at AOL, and earlier guidance of 200-250k broadband net adds for the year to March now looks unlikely to be met

The consultation period for the second phase of Ofcom’s Second Public Service Broadcasting Review closes on 4th December 2008. The central issue before Ofcom is that the current PSB model is broken, lacking the flexibility to “adapt to audiences’ evolving needs”. The primary concern lies with the commercial sector, which is under increasing strain to deliver its PSB commitments due to structural changes in the television medium that have been compounded by the present economic crisis. This presentation sets out our views about the role of structural changes in restraining TV net advertising revenues (NAR) growth in recent years along with our latest TV forecasts to 2013. Whilst some of the current downward pressures on TV NAR may be expected to ease, a new structural change that threatens the commercial PSB sector is the growing chasm between BBC investment in its PSB services and the advertising revenues of ITV, Channel 4 and Five

 

 

 

Another robust set of subscriber KPIs provides little indication of the economic downturn taking its toll, other than a sharp 1.1% jump in churn over the previous quarter, which could reflect other factors. The bigger issue appears to be subscriber spin-down to less expensive packages

 

 

 

Another strong quarter of pay-TV and Sky+ growth in the face of a severe retail downturn makes us more confident that Sky will achieve its target of 10 million DTH pay-TV subscribers by the end of calendar 2010 despite falling short of the required run rate of annual net additions in FY 2008

The TV advertising sector is haemorrhaging in the economic downturn, but troubles could also be brewing in the pay-TV sector. Sky still looks secure, but Setanta appears more exposed in its role of ancillary pay-TV provider in the high stakes and high risk world of premium sports

Ofcom has linked Sky's plans for a pay service on DTT (Picnic) to its wider investigation into the UK market for pay-TV, announcing on 13th May that it will issue its next statement on both issues simultaneously by the end of the summer. This is the first time the regulator has indicated that it is merging its consideration of Picnic with that of the wider pay-TV market

The BBC-ITV Freesat venture, launched on 6th May, is the public service response to Sky’s free satellite service. Once fully up and running in 2009, Freesat aims to match Sky with 200 digital TV channels in standard definition (SD), and surpass Sky with extra channels in High Definition (HD), plus the facility to offer iPlayer and Kangaroo