TalkTalk Group (TTG) reported revenue growth for the quarter to June was flattered by the Tiscali acquisition, but broadband net additions were reasonable given the protracted integration process and temporary absence from TV schedules of the X-Factor

An MVNO could prove challenging in terms of generating a significant direct impact on financial performance, but might help defend against other low price players, notably O2 and Tesco

Increasing demand for pay-TV, stimulated by Sky, VMed and now BT Retail, could potentially leave TTG exposed. Our current view is that there remains sufficient demand for ‘extended’ free-to-air TV for this not to be a major issue

The transaction size means that the OFT was obliged to examine BSkyB’s purchase of the VMtv channels. The transaction will probably be approved because of the small impact on Sky’s share of NAR (Net Advertising Revenue), which will rise from around 14% to 16%

The more pressing competition concern, which has attracted little attention, is Sky’s growing market power in the determination of carriage fee payments. Nevertheless the lack of companies actively prepared to complain to the OFT probably means that the transaction will go through without a murmur

Separately, the likely purchase of Five by Richard Desmond raises regulatory issues to do with the possible reduction of media ‘plurality’. The Sky/VMtv transaction and Channel 4’s taking over UKTV advertising sales also places Five Sales in a significantly weaker position, but any attempts to join with one of the big three sales groups (ITV, Channel 4 or Sky) may well be rejected by the competition regulators

There were approximately 18.7 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of March 2010 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q1 increased for the first time since the early years of the industry, although the increase, from 5.7% to 5.9% was very slight. In our view it should be interpreted as a stabilisation

Looking at net additions in the quarter, Q1 saw the sequential growth drop back to a more normal level of 9% after the 54% spike in the previous quarter, but year-on-year growth, at 21%, was the first really substantial increase since Q3 2005, when market growth was coming to the end of its exponential phase

Subject to BBC Trust approval, Canvas looks almost certain to launch in spring 2011 after the OFT decided that it did not have the jurisdiction to review Canvas under the merger provisions of the Enterprise Act 2002. The OFT decision does not rule out complaints on other grounds, but the chances of persuading the regulators look very small

The launch of Canvas promises to strengthen significantly the free-to-air digital terrestrial platform, otherwise very limited compared with satellite and cable platforms in terms of bandwidth, but mass adoption poses numerous challenges and it is open to question whether Canvas will ever extend to more than half the DTT base

In the long term, it is hard not to see Canvas as an interim step in the growing convergence between the TV screen and the internet, raising the question of how successfully its PSB TV-centric approach can adapt to the coming challenges of the full blown digital age

TTG’s indicative full year financial results were solid, but were flattered by the acquisition of Tiscali UK in July 2009

Subscriber growth at TalkTalk is exceptionally strong thanks to effective marketing and a strong proposition, if somewhat at the expense of the acquired businesses

Guidance for the new financial year looks undemanding given additional uplift from Tiscali UK; further underlying progress will depend crucially on continuing strong growth at TalkTalk and old fashioned operating leverage based on a single set of platforms, rather than new developments such as high speed broadband or TV

There were approximately 18.4 million fixed broadband lines in the UK at the end of Q4 2009 including those used by small and medium enterprises (SMEs)

Subscriber growth over the past year has continued to drop but the rate of decline has slowed to the lowest ever. Year-on-year subscriber growth in Q4 was 5.7%, only slightly down on Q3

Looking at net additions, Q4 saw the strongest sequential growth in percentage terms since the early days of UK broadband, with growth of 54% compared to 10% in Q4 2008. The leap in Q4 2009 was from a relatively low base, but even in absolute terms, the sequential increase in net adds of 111k was the highest since Q3 2004

BT Retail has announced its intention to launch residential
40 Mbit/s broadband at similar price points to its existing two higher tier
broadband offers. While this looks unlikely on its own to create significant
additional shareholder value, it could eventually help BT retain existing value

The move is unlikely to seriously inconvenience other
players for the next year or so, but could encourage TTG and Sky to sign
wholesale deals with BT for higher speed broadband and, ultimately, make it
more likely that a demerged TTG is acquired by another player

BT Retail’s strategy is likely to accelerate the
implementation of state-backed rural NGA in the UK since end user demand
outside commercially viable areas will be greater than would otherwise have
been the case

At TalkTalk Group (TTG) net broadband additions were solid, possibly helped by stronger growth in total market demand; but churn at Tiscali UK appears to remain high

TTG revenue was heavily distorted by the Tiscali acquisition but appears to remain in gradual decline on a like-for-like basis, due to continuing decline in non-broadband customers

Carphone Warehouse’s like-for-like distribution revenue showed a firm pick-up in the quarter, with it likely enjoying the first quarter of significantly improving market growth since the recession started

O2’s plan to launch competitively-priced ‘home phone’ offers in March should help sustain its current growth in fixed broadband, but is unlikely on its own to transform O2 into a significant player in UK fixed telecoms

The company’s fixed line foray is unlikely to reduce its mobile churn significantly, but nor does it look likely to increase it, with any residual net effect muted by the relatively small scale of O2’s fixed business

Demand for residential fixed telephony is declining gradually, and O2’s play is likely to make life more difficult for some established players, notably TTG, which is relatively dependent on demand from more price-sensitive customers