BSkyB’s Sky Europe project has added a new layer of interest in results of its Continental sister platforms. Sky Italia is almost profitable but with meagre growth prospects, while Sky Deutschland is loss-making but with significant expansion potential

In Germany Sky’s underlying subscriber growth trend is improving while churn is at a historical low. But ARPU growth has stalled, leading us to expect slower revenue growth in fiscal 2015. The latter would be consistent with Sky’s guidance for subscribers and EBITDA

Despite a double dip recession and erosion of its subscriber base, Sky Italia has improved profitability in fiscal 2014. Lower churn points to a possible return to growth – if the economy stabilises

2014 saw a fall in profits as BSkyB absorbed the £217 million step-up in the annual cost of PL rights and invested £60-70 million in accelerating growth in its connected offerings, but with strong underlying revenue growth pointing to a resurgence of profits in 2015

The annual results release was over-shadowed by the news of BSkyB’s proposal to create Sky Europe through the acquisition of 21C’s shares in Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia, where it sees great opportunities for revenue growth and cost synergies

Taking on a large increase in debt to finance the acquisitions when the next PL auction is about to strike sends out the message that BSkyB management is confident about the state of its business, has a clear view about the value of PL rights, and will not be side-tracked from the pursuit of its broader strategic objectives

TalkTalk’s June quarter results revealed solid subscriber trends, with broadband, fibre, line rental and TV net adds all either matching or slightly improving upon the previous quarter

Revenue growth dipped down on the previous quarter (3% vs. 5%), but the price increases in May/June have yet to have a full quarter’s effect, and the company remains confident in its full year guidance of at least 4%

Churn dropped again on the previous quarter, and the company makes a strong case that its triple play strategy should reduce it further, but the big test will be whether it can continue the trend over the rest of the financial year

Ofcom’s fibre margin squeeze test’s initial indicative assessment concludes that BT’s current wholesale/retail pricing is ‘close to the boundary’ of creating a squeeze on its competitors

While BT can take comfort that it is at least close to passing the test, its DSL competitors (Sky, TalkTalk et al) can take comfort that BT cannot make life materially more difficult for them without failing it

Crucially, the costs of BT Sport are included in the test, so BT is now heavily dis-incentivised from further aggressive bids for sports rights, which is positive news for the prospective cashflows of both Sky and indeed BT itself

Market revenue growth in the UK residential communications sector was surprisingly robust in Q1 2014, rising a touch to over 5% (or around 4% excluding the direct impact of BT Sport) from just under 5% the previous quarter, despite facing a number of headwinds

Revenue growth at the top four operators has converged to around 4% for all, which marks a major long term turnaround for BT and TalkTalk, who back in 2012 were both experiencing firmly declining revenue well below market growth, and have since done much to stabilise their subscriber bases and sustain ARPU growth

Looking forward, we expect that BT will continue to do well in the June quarter given Sky’s continued focus on TV products, but thereafter its focus may change, and whether BT's recent competitive boost from fibre will continue growing is uncertain. Having said this, any likely market share shifts are relatively minor in the context of the market, with the general theme likely to remain that the rising tide is lifting all boats

Sky and TalkTalk are rolling out fibre in a small part of York, using a model that they could potentially extend to cover 10-15% of UK households

The economics of greenfield fibre build are still terrible in general, with even building in cherry-picked areas very hard to justify under current conditions, although the economics will improve over time as demand for speed increases

Moreover, once it is built it is built, and BT loses the wholesale revenue forever. Taking the hint and offering more reasonable wholesale fibre pricing may not be a bad option if Sky and TalkTalk persist

The ongoing digital migration and the resulting audience fragmentation have led to rating losses at RTL and ProSieben, but with the latter retaining its younger viewers. From a low base global operators are gaining share

Leveraging their high market shares within a benign economic environment means RTL and ProSieben are in a position to withstand the increasing competition. ProSieben has been more active in developing diversification businesses – on which we have mixed feelings

The main extra growth prospects are in the distribution fees charged to TV platforms for HD channels, allowing a progressive shift to a mixed funding model

Enders Analysis co-hosted its annual conference, in conjunction with BNP Paribas and Deloitte, in London on 4 March 2014. The event featured talks by 13 of the most influential figures in media and telecoms, and was chaired by Sir Peter Bazalgette.

This report provides edited transcripts of the talks given by seven of those speakers: James Purnell, BBC; Dido Harding, TalkTalk; Nicola Mendelsohn, Facebook; John Paton, Digital First Media; Mike Darcey, News UK; Ashley Highfield, Johnston Press; Michael Comish, Tesco

The UK residential communications sector maintained strong revenue growth of 5% in Q4 on a reported basis, or 4% underlying, bolstered by strong volumes and solid pricing, with recent price increase implementations supporting the latter going forward

It is still hard to see a very significant competitive impact from BT Sport, with BT’s broadband net adds up by only 20k-30k on a year earlier, but the impact on costs is very clear, with increased sports rights costs, increased marketing costs and pay TV box/device subsidies driving up the cost base of all operators

Looking forward, in the short term market volumes are likely to be suppressed by recent bad weather lengthening provisioning times, and the detailed timings of price increases will suppress ARPU growth. In the medium term the outlook is much stronger, although the prospect of increased competitive activity around the next Premier League rights auction still casts a shadow

The Court of Appeal has judged that the Competition Appeal Tribunal erred in law in its rejection of the Ofcom Wholesale Must Offer remedy for premium sports by failing to deal adequately with all of Ofcom’s competition concerns but agreed with the Competition Appeal Tribunal that Ofcom had acted within its regulatory powers Sky’s appeal against the 2010 Ofcom decision will therefore be re-heard at the Competition Appeal Tribunal and we believe the likelihood is that the Wholesale Must Offer remedy will be approved, while the jurisdiction issue may yet have some life if Sky takes its appeal to the Supreme Court The seven year old pay-TV saga is far from over as major changes have occurred in the last four years. Irrespective of the progress of the Competition Appeal Tribunal review, we think it will have little bearing on the outcome of the Premier League auction in light of the strategic objectives of Sky and BT