Netflix audiences gravitate towards lean-back, family films and comedies, marking a notable contrast with the kinds of TV shows which get the most viewing.

Films and TV are watched differently on Netflix: films draw more repeat viewing, are more of a communal experience and are highly sought after on weekends.

This explains why Netflix—even without a consistent, broad theatrical strategy—invests heavily in film: it brings in a discrete audience and boosts engagement for most viewers.

The CMA's provisional findings on the Vodafone/Three merger reiterate its concerns around the impact on the retail and wholesale market but its previous issues regarding mobile towers sharing with BT/EE have been satisfied 

Crucially, the CMA seems somewhat dismissive of structural remedies, although hasn't ruled them out entirely. Remedies sought in the form of network and pricing commitments seem somewhat unnecessary, but nonetheless workable 

We now expect the Vodafone Three merger to gain approval in December, with remedy detail negotiated over the coming months—a very significant positive development for the sector 

Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions 

Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating 

Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream

Streaming fell back into the red again, although with further price hikes on the way—along with "modest" Disney+ subscriber growth—next quarter should see the beginning of a profitable trajectory

In the UK, Disney+ continues to grow engagement—if not necessarily subscriptions—however, we still await a boost from local scripted originals

While the performance of Disney's core segments appears to be stabilising, 2024 remains a year of unfinished projects

VMO2 survived the hammer blow of lower inflation-linked mobile price increases in Q2 with substantially unchanged revenue and EBITDA growth, helped by improving broadband ARPU

However, both mobile contract and broadband subs suffered declines, likely driven by issues with serving existing customers as well as attracting new ones, and these trends have to improve for the company to return to top and bottom line growth

Guidance implies that EBITDA growth will worsen in H2, but this would be good news in our view if it is driven by expenditure to support improved subscriber growth across broadband and mobile 

The UK’s choice of policy for rebalancing the relationships between news publishers and tech platforms is on the agenda of the CMA’s Digital Markets Unit for 2025. The UK is expected to steer clear of the pitfalls of Canada’s news bargaining regime, which led Meta to block news, crashing referrals.

In the UK, Google’s relationships with news publishers are much deeper than referrals, including advertising and market-specific voluntary arrangements that support a robust supply of journalism, and dovetail with the industry’s focus on technology (including AI) and distribution.

The rise of generative AI has also ignited the news industry’s focus on monetising the use of its content in LLMs. AI products could threaten the prominence, usage and positive public perceptions of journalism—this might require progress in journalism’s online infrastructure, supported by public policy.

BT’s revenue growth in Q1 was hit by lower price increases, but positive EBITDA growth was achieved thanks to strong cost control as inflationary pressures abate.

Subscriber figures were decidedly mixed, with mobile much improved, retail broadband much the same in a difficult market, and Openreach broadband much worse (but still manageable in context).

The bigger picture is that BT is successfully keeping all metrics roughly stable as it completes its fibre roll-out and waits for the inevitable cashflow turnaround as a result.

Netflix saw revenue grow 17% YoY (to $9.6 billion) in Q2 with margin continuing to stay healthy at 27%, approaching the levels of legacy media. It appears that the immediate revenue benefits of 'paid sharing' are now dissipating but any shift in perception around paying for the service will continue as a positive

In the UK, older viewers continue to drive viewing growth on the service—they will increasingly dictate whether something is a hit

Despite Netflix's perennial narrative of amplifying the effectiveness of foreign-language programming, English-language content continues to travel better than anything else

Netflix doesn’t think about its audience in terms of traditional demographics, instead it aligns them with ‘taste clusters’, which are formed by thousands of metadata tags on its programmes.

We have replicated Netflix’s approach to content analysis: layering its ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata with viewing data to identify what makes a Netflix hit.

Suspenseful, dark scripted dramas perform best globally, licensed high-volume sitcoms drive viewing in the UK, while unscripted TV has thus far underperformed.

Vodafone/H3G/VMO2 have announced a spectrum-trading and towers-sharing deal, allaying potential spectrum concerns around the proposed Vodafone/H3G merger, although BT may argue that it is short of some critical spectrum bands.

The towers sharing agreement incorporates H3G spectrum into the VMO2/Vodafone Beacon agreement and appears to expand the agreement onto some of H3G's current sites.

We estimate a c.70% increase in VMO2 capacity from this deal and 5% for the industry as a whole (in addition to the 25% from the Vodafone/Three merger). BT/EE made a strong argument for spectrum reallocation in its merger objection, and some validity to that argument may or may not remain post-trade