Ofcom’s recent statement on LLU pricing has increased the amount which BT Openreach can charge unbundlers for full LLU over the next two years by about 8% overall

We estimate the changes will raise BT group EBITDA by less than 1% over the two years to March 2011

TalkTalk Group’s recent retail price increase is more than enough to offset the impact of Ofcom’s ruling on its annual EBITDA to March 2010, but the ruling could still take 5% off annual EBITDA to March 2011

Sky has yet to start mass migration to MPF and is more exposed to increases in the price of ancillary services, but less exposed to those for MPF rental. Sky’s annual residential telecoms EBITDA to March 2011 could be 10% lower, but this could be reduced if management takes the opportunity to increase the price of retail line rental

According to press reports, Sky has lodged a bid of about £160 million for the VMtv content arm of Virgin Media (VMed), estimated to be 50-60% higher than other offers in the latest and final round of the bidding contest

At TalkTalk Group (TTG) net broadband additions for the quarter were relatively strong, given likely market growth, probably due at least in part to reduced subscriber loss at AOL UK

In our view cut-price business broadband, rather than IPTV, offers the best prospect of profitable revenue growth in fixed line

Against current annual losses in the order of £100 million, Setanta has the whole of June in which to attract the necessary investment that will allow it to continue. The alternative is closure

As complementary supplier of premium sports channels to Sky, Setanta has been more vulnerable to recessionary pressures, but it is not in the interest of any of its existing competitors/business associates for it to cease operations

There is a chance of survival, but it requires swapping the current retail/wholesale model for a wholesale only model as a start, with the possibility of further reductions in the costs of its sports rights

Channel 4 broke even in 2008 despite a 5% fall in total TV NAR (net advertising revenues), through a combination of outperforming the market and £25 million in programme budget cuts. Its annual report also underlined its credentials as the alternative PSB voice, based on market research conducted over the year

The crunch time is likely to come in 2009 and 2010. Although financially better placed in many ways than ITV, and more flexible over committed programme spend, the recession threatens Channel 4 with a cumulative annual net deficit of around £150 million in 2010 without further action

Financial pressures facing Channel 4 highlight the need for urgent government action, in the absence of which much depends on the outcome of Virgin Media’s efforts to sell its content assets and the ultimate willingness of BBC Worldwide to engage in a JV with Channel 4. Consolidation would help even if it did not solve all of Channel 4’s pressing financial concerns

Another strong quarter of pay-TV subscriber growth, marked by record Sky+ HD sales, indicated continued resistance to recessionary pressures, supported by flat costs other than those associated with accelerated HD take-up

Results for the telecoms business again displayed strong volume growth in an increasingly difficult market. But original guidance for broadband subscribers, breakeven and standalone IRR looks challenging

Although the recession may yet take its toll on subscriber growth, the final outcome could work to Sky’s advantage due to the severe revenue losses being experienced by the free-to-air advertising sector. Constraints imposed by regulatory intervention remain a possibility, but unlikely to make a material difference over the next two to three years

Leading pay-TV operators Sky and Virgin Media (VMed) have shown little sign of recessionary damage in 2008 and the outlook for Q1 2009 remains positive. Difficulties are apparent at complementary pay-TV service provider Setanta

Ofcom’s pay-TV investigation enters its final stages in 2009. Ofcom faces a formidable challenge to devise a workable wholesale must-offer solution for premium film and sports content that fosters competition across all platforms

With prospects fading fast of a VMed sale of its UKTV and possibly VMTV assets to a BBCW/Channel 4 joint venture, Discovery looks an increasingly suitable candidate, as competition concerns could arise if Sky was the chosen partner

UK broadband subscriber growth continued to decline in Q4 2008 year-on-year. We expect declining growth throughout 2009, with the growth rate remaining positive, but in single figures

Vivendi’s Canal+ Group overshot its 2008 EBITA target, despite sluggish subscription growth, delivering to shareholders some of the promised post-merger gains from “synergies” with TPS

For 2009, Vivendi has issued cautious revenue and EBITA guidance that, on current trends, will easily be met. However, management has now recognised that initial targets for 2010 will be “hard to reach” – as we have already warned

In the medium term, a further downside risk for Canal+ Group is the likely loss of exclusivity for the distribution of themed channels, which could be the outcome of the anti-trust investigation of CanalSat, with a ruling expected in 2009

Project Canvas is the BBC/ITV/BT backed proposal for next generation Freeview and Freesat services that embraces IPTV reception, new EPG, home storage and HDTV applications

Setting up Canvas as a not-for-profit consortium and making it non-exclusive to content providers should avoid the competition issues which killed Kangaroo, but many questions remain and technical and regulatory delays could push back the launch to 2011

We do not expect Canvas to make a major difference to non-linear viewing of audiovisual content – its importance lies much more in future-proofing the ‘Free TV’ viewing experience on the terrestrial and satellite platforms

The Premier League has succeeded in obtaining a 4.4% increase in live televised rights payments from £1,706 million to £1,782 million for the next three year contract commencing with the 2010/11 football season

The big surprise was that Sky bid more than last time round (by an estimated factor of circa 7.5% for its current four packages), while Setanta bid roughly 20% less for its two packages, thereby losing one to Sky

The highly contrasting bidding approaches appear to reflect completely different mindsets, with the not yet viable Setanta focused on the economic value of the PL rights, and Sky taken up with demonstrating long-term commitment to the PL